ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 3.6pts to 79.8 in February
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 3.6pts to 79.8 in February. From a glass-half-full perspective that’s still above its December low of 73.8, but the level is very low.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a ‘bad time to buy a major household item’ was up 4% points to 57% while only 22% (down 3% points) say it is a ‘good time to buy a major household item’, meaning the net result fell 7 points to -35%, the lowest level since the 2020 lockdown.
- Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.2%.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index eased 3 points in February, to a level that is by any definition very subdued. While confidence is rising in our Business Outlook survey, consumer confidence could better be described as bouncing round the bottom.
Turning to the detail:
- Net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 10 points to -30%. That’s the lowest since 2008 as the cost of living bites.
- A net 7% expect to be better off this time next year, unchanged on a month ago.
- A net 35% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 7 points.
- Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 1 point to -41%. The 5-year-ahead measure eased from -1% to -3% on a net basis.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
