Roy Morgan predicts ‘No’ will win ‘The Voice’ referendum; ‘No’ (44%) well ahead of ‘Yes’ (39%) as voting set to start

Now 44% (up 8% points since May) of Australians say they would vote ‘No’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice’ at next month’s referendum if it were held today – the first time more Australians have indicated to Roy Morgan they would vote ‘No’ to this proposition.

In comparison, only 39% (down 7% points since May 2023) say they would vote ‘Yes’ and a further 17% (down 1% point) are ‘Undecided’ on how they would vote.

If ‘Undecided’ respondents are removed the split in favour of the ‘No’ vote is 53% cf. 47%. However, past experience with surveys conducted before previous referenda shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote meaning the actual figure is likely to be a larger majority in favour of ‘No’ than indicated here.

Respondents around Australia were asked: “Next month’s referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?”

This special Roy Morgan online survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,511 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday September 18 - Sunday September 24, 2023.

Victoria and Tasmania are only States in which more respondents say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’

It's worth noting that the road to a successful referendum demands not only a majority of people nationally but also a majority of people in a majority of states (at least four out of six).

The results of this Roy Morgan online survey on ‘The Voice’ show that Victoria is the only mainland State which has more in favour of ‘The Voice’ at 46% compared to 42% who say they will vote ‘No’. There are a majority in favour in Tasmania at 56% compared to 43% against but this result is based on a small sample.

In the four other mainland States there are pluralities who say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ including in New South Wales (42%), Queensland (49%), Western Australia (46%) and South Australia (48%).

Support for a ‘Voice to Parliament’ by State (Changes in support since May 2023):

• Tasmania: Yes (56%, up 14%) cf. No (43%, up 17%) cf. Undecided (1%, down 31%);
• Victoria: Yes (46%, down 1%) cf. No (42%, up 10%) cf. Undecided (12%, down 9%);
• New South Wales: Yes (40%, down 8%) cf. No (42%, up 4%) cf. Undecided (18%, up 4%);
• South Australia: Yes (36%, down 11%) cf. No (48%, up 16%) cf. Undecided (16%, down 5%);
• Queensland: Yes (31%, down 8%) cf. No (49%, up 3%) cf. Undecided (20%, up 5%);
• Western Australia: Yes (30%, down 11%) cf. No (46%, up 11%) cf. Undecided (24%, unchanged).

A majority of ALP and Greens voters support ‘The Voice’ but majorities of L-NP, One Nation and Other Party voters are against; Independent voters remain split either way

There are large differences on views on ‘The Voice’ based on voting intention. There is strong support for ‘The Voice’ from both ALP supporters (67%, unchanged since May) and Greens supporters (83%, down 7% points).

However, there are clear majorities who say they will vote ‘No’ among L-NP supporters (76%, up 3% points), One Nation supporters (94%, up 8% points) and voters for Other Parties (62%, up 12% points).

Australians who support Independent candidates are split down the middle with 42% (down 7% points) saying they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to the same number, 42% (up 16% points) who say they’ll vote ‘No’.

The proportion of ‘Undecided’ voters has fallen significantly for both ALP supporters to 15% (down 6% points) and L-NP supporters to 12% (down 5% points).

A majority of men are against ‘The Voice’, while a plurality of women support ‘The Voice’

There remains a clear gender split when it comes to support of ‘The Voice’. A slim majority of 52% (up 10% points since May) of men say they will vote ‘No’ compared to around two-fifths, 36% (down 4% points) who will vote ‘Yes’ while there are 12% (down 6% points) who are undecided.

In contrast, a plurality of 42% of women (down 9% points) say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to 37% (up 6% points) who will vote ‘No’ while around a fifth, 21% (up 3% points) are ‘Undecided’.

A look at the four key age groups shows support for ‘The Voice’ is down for all Australians aged under 65 – and those aged 65+ are already the most opposed of any age group.

Now 47% (down 16% points) of those aged under 35 say they would vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ – the only age group with more in support than opposed. Only 28% (up 2% points) say they will vote ‘No’.

A narrow plurality of 43% (up 10% points) of those aged 35-49 say they will vote ‘No’ compared to 41% (down 7% points) who say they will vote ‘Yes’. A clear plurality of 49% (up 11% points) of those aged 50-64 say they will vote ‘No’ compared to 36% (down 4% points) of this age group who say they will vote ‘Yes’.

In contrast, a rising majority of 57% (up 6% points) of people aged 65+ say they will vote ‘No’ compared to only 33% (up 1% point) of this age group who say they will vote ‘Yes’.

Interestingly, the proportion of ‘undecided’ voters is heavily correlated to age and is highest for those aged 18-24 (31%) followed by those aged 25-34 (25%), 35-49 (16%) and 50-64 (15%).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for ‘The Voice’ has continued to fall over the last four months and has now plunged below 40% of electors – only 39% (down 7% points since May) of electors now say they plan to vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ at next month’s referendum:

“A special Roy Morgan online survey in late September shows support for ‘The Voice’ has fallen further over the last four months. Now a clear plurality of 44% of electors say they plan to vote ‘No’ at next month’s referendum – up a significant 8% points since May 2023.

“This is the first time in a Roy Morgan survey that more electors have indicated they plan to vote ‘No’ rather than ‘Yes’ regarding the proposed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament. However, a still sizeable 17% of electors – around one-in-six – still say they are ‘Undecided’.

“On these results the referendum proposal is set to fail with past experience showing the vast majority of undecided voters eventually decide to vote ‘No’.

“There is a clear precedent here with the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey in 2017. A special Roy Morgan survey conducted in early October 2017 – while voting was already under way – showed 61.5% of electors said they would vote ‘Yes’ to the proposal. A further 38.5% of electors said they would either vote ‘No’, were ‘undecided’ or would not reveal how they would vote.

“The official result of the plebiscite revealed in late November 2017 was that 61.6% of electors eventually voted ‘Yes’ to the proposal and 38.4% voted ‘No’. This indicated almost all those who were ‘undecided’ or wouldn’t reveal how they would vote eventually decided to vote ‘No’.

“If the trends from the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey are repeated at next month’s referendum the proposal is set to be rejected both at a national level and in the key states the proposal needs to win to stand a chance of being successful.

“On the results in today’s Roy Morgan survey only Tasmania, and perhaps Victoria, are set to vote in favour of the proposal. The referendum proposal is set to be rejected in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia.

“Crucially, for a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of voters around the country as well as a majority of voters in at least four out of the six States must vote in favour of a change.

“There are clear gender and age splits on the question of ‘The Voice’. A majority of 52% of men say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ while a plurality of 42% of women will vote ‘Yes’.

“In terms of age groups, only people aged under 35 are more in favour of ‘The Voice’ than opposed – 47% set to vote ‘Yes’ compared to 28% voting ‘No’. A plurality of 43% of 35-49 year olds and 49% of 50-64 year olds say they will vote ‘No’ while a clear majority of 57% of those aged 65+ plan to vote ‘No’.

“The question remains heavily politicised with 67% of ALP supporters and 83% of Greens supporters planning to vote ‘Yes’ while over three-quarters of L-NP supporters (76%) and almost all One Nation supporters (94%) say they will vote ‘No’.”

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Australians surveyed were each asked the following question:

• Question 1: “Next month’s referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?” ‘Yes’ 39% (down 7% points since May 2023) cf. ‘No’ 44% (up 8% points) cf. ‘Undecided’ 17% (down 1% points). Previous question asked in December 2022, April 2023 and May 2023 was: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?”
• Question 2: “And why do you say that?”

This special Roy Morgan online survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,511 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday September 18 - Sunday September 24, 2023.