Support for ‘The Voice’ unchanged at 46% in late May

An unchanged plurality of 46% of Australians say they would vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ at a referendum if it was held today – the same as a month ago in mid-April 2023. Over a third of Australians 36% (down 3% points) say they would vote ‘No’ and a further 18% (up 3% points) are ‘Undecided’ on how they would vote.

If ‘Undecided’ respondents are removed the split in favour of the ‘Yes’ vote is 56% cf. 44%. However, past experience shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote.

Respondents around Australia were asked: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,833 Australian electors aged 18+ over the weekend from Friday May 26 - Monday May 29, 2023.

Victoria and New South Wales most likely to vote ‘Yes’ while Queensland is the only State with more people saying they will vote ‘No’ than ‘Yes’

For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of Australian voters nationally as well as a majority of voters in a majority of States (four out of six) must vote in favour of the proposal.

The results of this special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ show that there is not majority support for ‘The Voice’ in any State – however three States have large pluralities saying they will vote ‘Yes’ – New South Wales (48%), Victoria (47%) and South Australia (47%).

In addition, clear pluralities of people in Western Australia (41% Yes cf. 35% No) and Tasmania (42% Yes cf. 26% No) are in favour and say they will vote ‘Yes’.

However, Queenslanders remain largely opposed to ‘The Voice’. In Queensland a plurality of 46% say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ compared to 39% who will vote ‘Yes’.

Support for a ‘Voice to Parliament’ by State:

• New South Wales: Yes (48%, up 2%) cf. No (38%, unchanged) cf. Undecided (14%, down 2%);
• Victoria: Yes (47%, down 5%) cf. No (32%, up 1%) cf. Undecided (21%, up 4%);
• South Australia: Yes (47%, up 8%) cf. No (32%, down 18%) cf. Undecided (21%, up 10%);
• Tasmania: Yes (42%, up 4%) cf. No (26%, down 7%) cf. Undecided (32%, up 3%);
• Western Australia: Yes (41%, down 5%) cf. No (35%, down 6%) cf. Undecided (24%, up 11%);
• Queensland: Yes (39%, down 2%) cf. No (46%, unchanged) cf. Undecided (15%, up 2%).

Support for ‘The Voice’ is down amongst ALP supporters, but up for supporters of Independents and Other Parties although Greens supporters are the most in favour

There are large differences based on voting intention but the changes over the last month have been largest amongst ALP supporters and supporters of Independents and Other Parties.

Among ALP voters those in favour of ‘The Voice’ dropped 8% points to 67% – the largest drop for any political group. However, support amongst Greens is virtually unchanged from a month ago at 90%.

Coalition supporters remain largely opposed to ‘The Voice’ with only 10% (up 4% points) saying they will vote ‘Yes’ while a large majority of 73% (down 1% point) say they will vote ‘No’.

One Nation supporters are even more opposed with only 2% (down 5% points) saying they will vote ‘Yes’ while a large majority of 86% (down 3% points) say they will vote ‘No’.

There has been some good news for proponents of the referendum with increasing pluralities of Independent and Other Party supporters now saying they will vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’.

An increasing plurality of 49% (up 9% points) of Independent supporters say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to 26% (down 6% points) who say they will vote ‘No’ and 25% (down 3% points) who are ‘Undecided’.

Now 30% (up 9% points) of supporters of Other Parties say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to 50% (unchanged) who will vote ‘No’ and 20% (down 9% points) who are ‘Undecided’.

A majority of Women support ‘The Voice’, a plurality of men don’t

There remains a clear gender split when it comes to support of ‘The Voice’. A slim majority of 51% (up 1% point) of women say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to under a third, 31% (unchanged) who will vote ‘No’ while there are 18% (down 1% point) who are undecided.

In contrast, a slim plurality of 42% of men (down 4% points) say they will vote ‘No’ compared to 40% (down 3% points) who will vote ‘Yes’ while a rising 18% (up 7% points) are undecided.

Looking at the four key age groups shows support for ‘The Voice’ rising for those aged under 35 but falling for all older age groups.

Now 63% (up 12% points) of those aged under 35 say they would vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ – the only age group with a majority in support. Only 26% (down 9% points) say they will vote ‘No’.

A clear plurality of 48% (down 4% points) of those aged 35-49 say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to 33% (up 1% points) who say they will vote ‘No’. A narrow plurality of 40% (down 1% point) of those aged 50-64 say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to 38% (down 4% points) of this age group who say they will vote ‘No’.

In contrast, a rising majority of 51% (up 3% points) of people aged 65+ say they will vote ‘No’ compared to only 32% (down 5% points) of this age group who say they will vote ‘Yes’.

Respondents were asked a follow-up question, ‘And why do you say that’ to explain their reasoning for saying they would vote ‘Yes’, ‘No’ or were undecided about ‘The Voice’.

For the 46% of respondents who said they would vote ‘Yes’ to support the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes to emerge were:

• It’s time, it’s long overdue recognition for indigenous and First Nations people and it’s simply the right thing to do;
• Aboriginal people must be recognised in our constitution and should be acknowledged in these governing documents; and
• The indigenous Australians deserve a voice and a say in determining policy in areas that affect them and they deserve to have their voices heard.

For the 36% of respondents who said they would vote ‘No’ to the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes they mentioned were:

• Because it will divide the nation – it’s ‘divisive’ and racist;
• The lack of detail and not enough information means I can’t support something that I don’t understand and the politicians are trying to bring in; and
• It’s undemocratic – there’s already an Aboriginal voice in Parliament when they’re voted in like everybody else.

Almost one-in-six respondents (18%) are ‘Undecided’ about how they would vote on a referendum to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key theme to emerge strongly revolved around:

• Lack of information available about the proposal and how it would operate;
• I haven’t looked into it yet and don’t know enough about it; and
• There’s a lot of unanswered questions and the implications haven’t been properly explained.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for ‘The Voice’ has held steady over the last month with a plurality of 46% of Australians in support of the referendum proposal:

“A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey in late May shows support for ‘The Voice’ has held steady over the last month – although only 46% of Australians (unchanged since mid-April) now say they would vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’.

“Over a third of Australians, 36% (down 3% points) say they will vote ‘No’ while just under a fifth, 18% (up 3% points) say they are still ‘Undecided’. These results mean the overall referendum result remains on a knife-edge with five or six months until the expected polling day.

“Crucially, there are no States with a majority now in support of ‘The Voice’. For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of voters around the country as well as a majority of voters in at least four out of the six States must vote in favour of a change.

“As of late May there are three States with large pluralities in favour of ‘The Voice’ led by New South Wales (48% voting ‘Yes’), Victoria (47%) and South Australia (47%). There are two additional States with smaller pluralities in support including Tasmania (42%) and Western Australia (41%).

“Once again it is Queensland which remains opposed to ‘The Voice’ with a plurality of 46% saying they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ compared to only 39% who say they will vote ‘Yes’.

“There are clear gender and age splits on the question of ‘The Voice’. A majority of 51% of Women say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ compared to only 40% of men – a gap of 11% points.

“In terms of age groups, only people aged under 35 are firmly in favour of ‘The Voice’ with 63% of this age group set to vote ‘Yes’. It is worth noting that there are pluralities of people aged 35-49 (48%) and 50-64 (40%) who say they will vote ‘Yes’. “In contrast, older Australians aged 65+ are resolutely opposed with a majority of 51% of this age group set to vote ‘No’ at the referendum – the only age group with a majority opposed.

“Interestingly, when it comes to political party support, it is ALP supporters who have declined in support the most over the past month. Now 67% (down 8% points) of ALP supporters say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’.

“The rise in support has come from supporters of Independents, up 9% points to 49%, and supporters of Other Parties, up 9% points to 30%, to cancel out the decline in support among ALP voters.

“Importantly, Greens supporters remain firmly in favour with 90% saying they will vote ‘Yes’ while Coalition supporters are resolutely opposed – only 10% say they will vote ‘Yes’.”

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Australians surveyed were each asked the following question:

• Question 1: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?” Yes 46% (unchanged since April 2023) cf. No 36% (down 3% points) cf. Undecided 18% (up 3% points).
• Question 2: “And why do you say that?”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,833 Australian electors aged 18+ from Friday May 26 - Monday May 29, 2023.