53% of Australians would vote “Yes” to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’

A slim majority of 53% of Australians would vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’, compared to 30% who would vote ‘No’ and a further 17% are undecided.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,499 Australians aged 17+ over the weekend from Friday December 9 - Monday December 12, 2022.

Respondents around Australia were asked: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?”.

There is a clear political divide on the ‘Voice to Parliament’

There are large differences based on voting intention in regards to ‘The Voice’ with 76% of ALP supporters and 89% of Greens supporters indicating they would vote ‘Yes’ to establish the ‘Voice to Parliament’. Only 9% of ALP supporters and just 2% of Greens supporters would vote ‘No’.

In contrast, nearly two-thirds of L-NP supporters, 64%, would vote ‘No’ to establishing a ‘Voice to Parliament’ compared to only 15% who would vote ‘Yes’. Over a fifth of L-NP supporters, 21%, are undecided on which way they would vote.

One Nation supporters are the most firmly against the proposed ‘Voice to Parliament’ with nearly three-quarters, 71%, saying they would vote ‘No’ to the ‘Voice to Parliament’ compared to only 18% who would vote ‘Yes’ in favour of the proposal.

There are slim majorities who would vote ‘Yes’ to the ‘Voice to Parliament’ amongst supporters of Independents (54%) and supporters of Other Parties (59%).

Five States in favour of ‘The Voice’, Queenslanders are yet to be convinced

For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of Australian voters nationally as well as a majority of voters in a majority of States (four out of six) must vote in favour of the proposal.

The results of this special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ show that slim majorities in three States (New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia), as well as larger majorities in two other States (Western Australia and Tasmania), would see ‘The Voice’ referendum proposal succeed.

Support for a ‘Voice to Parliament’ by State:

• New South Wales: Yes (52%) cf. No (29%) cf. Undecided (19%);
• Victoria: Yes (55%) cf. No (28%) cf. Undecided (17%);
• Queensland: Yes (44%) cf. No (38%) cf. Undecided (18%);
• Western Australia: Yes (63%) cf. No (26%) cf. Undecided (11%);
• South Australia: Yes (54%) cf. No (33%) cf. Undecided (13%);
• Tasmania: Yes (68%) cf. No (24%) cf. Undecided (8%).

A majority of women and all age groups under 65 would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’

There are clear gender and age gaps that emerge when we analyse support for ‘The Voice’ among different demographic segments.

A clear majority of women (57%) would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ compared to only around a quarter, 26%, that would vote ‘No’ while a further 17% are undecided.

Men are more split on the question with a large plurality of 49% indicating they would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ compared to 35% who would vote ‘No’ and a further 16% are undecided.

A majority of all age groups under the age of 65 say they would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ on a referendum with the highest support among younger Australians aged under 35 (60%) and almost as many aged 35-49 (57%) say they would vote ‘Yes’.

A slim majority of people aged 50-64 (52%) say they would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’, but nearly a third (31%) of that age group say they would vote ‘No’.

The only age group with a distinctly different view is those aged 65+, but there is no majority for either side with this older cohort. A plurality of people aged 65+ say they would vote ‘No’ (47%) to ‘The Voice’ compared to 40% who would vote ‘Yes’ while 13% are undecided.

Respondents were asked a follow-up question, ‘And why do you say that’ to explain their reasoning for saying they would vote ‘Yes’, ‘No’ or were undecided about ‘The Voice’.

For the 53% of respondents who said they would vote ‘Yes’ to support the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes to emerge were that Aboriginal people should have a voice and representation – they deserve to be heard, because it’s about time and long overdue, it’s just generally the right thing to do, it’s an important part of reconciliation and closing the gap, and because indigenous and First Nations people deserve recognition in the constitution.

For the 30% of respondents who said they would vote ‘No’ to the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes they mentioned were because it would be ‘divisive’, because they don’t trust government and politicians so why trust them with this, the lack of detail and not having enough information about it, that indigenous Australians already have a voice and representation and that there is already an over-representation of Aboriginals in the Federal Parliament (11) compared to population size and because everyone should have equal standing.

For the one-in-six respondents (17%) that are ‘Undecided’ about how they would vote on a referendum to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes included not knowing enough about it and a lack of understanding about what it means, needing more information to make an informed choice and the general lack of details about how it would operate and what its functions would be.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey shows a slim majority of 53% of Australians now say they will vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ – although the actual referendum is not due to be held until late 2023:

“A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey shows a slim majority of 53% of Australians are ready to vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ in the Australian constitution compared to just under a third, 30%, who say they would vote ‘No’. About one-in-six Australians, 17%, are still undecided about how they would vote.

“The good news for proponents of the constitutional change is that a majority of Australians and a majority of Australians in a majority of States (NSW: 52% Yes; Victoria: 55% Yes; WA: 63% Yes; SA: 54% Yes and Tasmania: 68% Yes) say they would vote ‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’. Only in Queensland is there an unclear result with only 44% saying they will vote ‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’.

“For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of voters around the country as well as a majority of voters in at least four out of the six States must vote in favour of a change. The last successful referendums to pass in Australia were nearly 50 years ago in 1977 when Australians voted in favour of reforming Senate Casual Vacancies, the conduct of Referendums and the Retirement of Judges.

“In a warning for those who don’t want to see the referendum on ‘The Voice’ become politicised there are already clear political lines being drawn between proponents and opponents of the change. Large majorities of ALP supporters (76%) and Greens supporters (89%) say they will vote ‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’ whereas nearly two-thirds of L-NP supporters (64%) and approaching three-quarters of One Nation supporters (71%) say they will vote ‘No’ against the establishment of ‘The Voice’.

“One of the key arguments used by those who are undecided, as well as many of those who say they will vote ‘No’, is that there is not enough information out there about what ‘The Voice’ will actually do and how it will operate. For some people this lack of detail means they are undecided, for others it already means they have decided to vote ‘No’.

“Many of those arguing against the establishment of ‘The Voice’ say indigenous Australians already have sufficient representation – including 11 Members of Federal Parliament (5%) which is higher than their share of the wider population. There are also many who believe ‘The Voice’ would be divisive and that everyone should have an equal standing.

“For those intending to vote ‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’ the key arguments are that it’s about time indigenous Australians had proper representation because as the original inhabitants of this land they deserve to be heard and listened to. Many also mentioned that establishing ‘The Voice’ is an important part of reconciliation and that First Nations people should be recognised in the Australian constitution rather than ignored.

“Although it is still early days the Albanese Government has pledged to hold a referendum later next year on whether to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ and history shows that passing a referendum in Australia generally requires bipartisan agreement on the change.

“Already the Federal National Party has come out against the proposed change by supporting the view of indigenous Country Liberal Senator Jacinta Nampijina Price who sits in the National’s party-room. The Federal Liberal Party under Peter Dutton has yet to take a position on the issue and has called for the Albanese Government to release more details on the proposed change.

“The results of this special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey suggest even if the Federal Liberal Party hasn’t made up their minds on the issue many of their voters are already set against the idea.”

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

To purchase full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions relating to how Australians view the proposed referendum question on establishing an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ for a price of $9,800 contact Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann. By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.

Australians surveyed were each asked the following question:

• Question 1: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?” Yes 53% cf. No 30% cf. Undecided 17%.
• Question 2: “And why do you say that?”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,499 Australians aged 17+ from Friday December 9 - Monday December 12, 2022.