Support for ‘The Voice’ drops to 46% of Australians – down 7% points since December 2022 as Liberals vow to oppose

Support for ‘The Voice’ has dropped across Australia in all six States over the last four months and after Liberal Party Leader Peter Dutton announced the party would formally advocate for a ‘No’ vote in the forthcoming referendum due later this year.

The survey was conducted before the Coalition’s shadow ministry reshuffle this week which led to the promotion of two Aboriginal women, Senator Jacinta Nampijina Price and Senator Kerrynne Liddle, into the shadow ministry including Senator Price as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians.

Now a plurality of 46% of Australians (down 7% points since December 2022) would vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’, compared to 39% (up 9% points) who would vote ‘No’ and a further 15% (down 2% points) are undecided.

If the ‘Undecided’ respondents are removed the split in favour of the ‘Yes’ vote is 54% cf. 46%. However, past experience shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote. This trend has been observed even over the last few months as ALP and Greens supporters who were ‘Undecided’ have been far more likely to move to the ‘No’ vote rather than becoming a ‘Yes’ vote.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,181 Australian electors aged 18+ over the weekend from Friday April 14 - Tuesday April 18, 2022.

Respondents around Australia were asked: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?”.

Only Victoria has majority support for ‘The Voice’ in April while two States now have more people saying ‘No’ than ‘Yes’ (Queensland and South Australia)

For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of Australian voters nationally as well as a majority of voters in a majority of States (four out of six) must vote in favour of the proposal.

The results of this special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ show that a slim majority of Victorians (52%) say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ – the only State with majority support.

In addition, pluralities of people in New South Wales (46% Yes cf. 38% No), Western Australia (46% Yes cf. 41% No) and Tasmania (38% Yes cf. 33% No) are in favour and say they will vote ‘Yes’.

There are now two States in which more people are opposed to ‘The Voice’ than in favour. In Queensland a plurality of 46% say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ compared to 41% who will vote ‘Yes’ and in South Australia exactly half of people, 50%, say they will vote ‘No’ compared to only 39% who will vote ‘Yes’.

Support for a ‘Voice to Parliament’ by State:

• Victoria: Yes (52%, down 3%) cf. No (31%, up 3%) cf. Undecided (17%, unchanged);
• New South Wales: Yes (46%, down 6%) cf. No (38%, up 9%) cf. Undecided (16%, down 3%);
• Western Australia: Yes (46%, down 17%) cf. No (41%, up 15%) cf. Undecided (13%, up 2%);
• Tasmania: Yes (38%, down 30%) cf. No (33%, up 9%) cf. Undecided (29%, up 21%);
• Queensland: Yes (41%, down 3%) cf. No (46%, up 8%) cf. Undecided (13%);
• South Australia: Yes (39%, down 15%) cf. No (50%, up 17%) cf. Undecided (11%, down 2%).

There is a clear political divide on ‘The Voice’ – Support amongst ALP & Greens voters is largely unchanged, but support for ‘Yes’ is down for L-NP, One Nation, Independent and Other Party voters

There are large differences based on voting intention which have grown since December.

Support for ‘The Voice’ is virtually unchanged for ALP supporters at 75% (down 1% point since December) and Greens supporters at 89% (unchanged).

Now 14% of ALP supporters (up 5% points) and 5% of Greens supporters (up 3% points) say they would vote ‘No’. The proportion of ‘Undecided’ has gone down for both groups with only 11% (down 4% points) of ALP supporters and 6% (down 3% points) of Greens supporters now ‘Undecided’.

These results show that as ‘Undecided’ voters make up their minds on ‘The Voice’ they are far more likely to move into the ‘No’ camp than the ‘Yes’ camp.

In contrast, since December support for ‘The Voice’ has dropped among voters for the L-NP, One Nation, Independent and Other Parties.

Now only 6% (down 9% points) of L-NP supporters say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ while nearly three-quarters, 74% (up 10% points), say they will vote ‘No’ and around a fifth, 20% (down 1% point) are still ‘Undecided’.

There has been the same trend with One Nation supporters – now only 7% (down 11% points) say they will support ‘The Voice’ compared to 89% (up 18% points) who will vote ‘No’ and only 4% (down 7% points) are now ‘Undecided’.

A declining plurality of 40% (down 14% points) of Independent supporters say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to 32% (up 11% points) who say they will vote ‘No’ and 28% (up 3% points) who are ‘Undecided’.

Now only 21% (down 38% points) of supporters of Other Parties say they will vote ‘Yes’ compared to 50% (up 25% points) who will vote ‘No’ and 29% (up 13% points) who are ‘Undecided’.

Support for ‘The Voice’ falls amongst both genders and across all age groups

There has been a clear drop in support of a similar magnitude for ‘The Voice’ amongst both genders and across the four key age groups over the last four months.

Now half of women (50%, down 7% points since December) would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ compared to 31% (up 5% points) that would vote ‘No’ and 19% (up 2% points) who are ‘Undecided’.

Men are more evenly split on the question with only 43% (down 6% points) who say they would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ compared to 46% (up 11% points) that would vote ‘No’ and 11% (down 5% points) who remain ‘Undecided’.

Looking at the four key age groups shows that a majority of 51% of those aged under 50 say they would vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’. This includes 51% (down 9% points) of people aged 18-34 and 52% (down 5% points) of people aged 35-49 – but support is clearly down in both age groups since December 2022.

In contrast, a plurality of Australians aged 50-64 (42%, up 11% points) and 65+ (48%, up 1% point) say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’.

Respondents were asked a follow-up question, ‘And why do you say that’ to explain their reasoning for saying they would vote ‘Yes’, ‘No’ or were undecided about ‘The Voice’.

For the 46% of respondents who said they would vote ‘Yes’ to support the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes to emerge were:

• Aboriginal people should have a voice and representation – it’s the right thing to do;
• It’s long overdue recognition for indigenous and First Nations people; and
• The indigenous Australians deserve recognition in Australia, morally it’s the right thing to do because they deserve to be heard and it’s an important part of reconciliation.

For the 39% of respondents who said they would vote ‘No’ to the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes they mentioned were:

• Because it would be ‘divisive’ – it’s a racist idea and will be undemocratic;
• It would divide the country by race;
• The lack of detail and not enough information means I can’t support something that I don’t understand; and
• There’s already good representation of indigenous Australians in Parliament.

Almost one-in-six respondents (15%) are ‘Undecided’ about how they would vote on a referendum to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key theme to emerge strongly revolved around:

• Lack of understanding about how it would operate;
• Lack of information available to explain the change; and
• No general details in the public arena.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says there has been a loss of support for ‘The Voice’ over the last few months as positions have hardened and the Liberal Party formally announced in early April it would campaign to oppose ‘The Voice’:

“A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey in mid-April shows support for ‘The Voice’ has plunged since December 2022 – now only 46% of Australian electors (down 7% points since December) say they will vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ in the Australian constitution compared to a fast rising 39% (up 9% points) who say they will vote ‘No’ and a still significant 15% (down 2% points) who are ‘Undecided’.

“Support for ‘The Voice’ has dropped amongst both genders and all age groups and crucially – support is down in all six States around Australia. For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of voters around the country as well as a majority of voters in at least four out of the six States must vote in favour of a change.

“As of mid-April, only Victoria maintains majority support for ‘The Voice’ with 52% of Victorians saying they will vote ‘Yes’. There is a plurality of support for ‘The Voice’ in New South Wales (46%), Western Australia (46%) and Tasmania (38%) – although the support is down significantly in all three.

“However now more people in South Australia (50%) and Queensland (46%) say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ rather than ‘Yes’. Only 41% of Queenslanders and 39% of South Australians now say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’.

“The striking change since December is the politicization of the issue. Support for ‘The Voice’ amongst ALP supporters and Greens supporters is virtually unchanged since December – 75% of ALP supporters and 89% of Greens supporters say they will vote ‘Yes’.

“However, support for ‘The Voice’ has collapsed amongst Liberal supporters to only 6% (down 9% points), One Nation supporters to only 7% (down 11% points), Independent supporters to 40% (down 14% points) and supporters of Other Parties to only 21% (down 38% points).

“The most recent Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention released in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update shows the support for the major parties remains relatively close on primary vote with the ALP on 37% and Liberal-National Coalition on 33% illustrating how tight this referendum could be when supporters of the two major parties have such different views on the issue.

“The Liberal Party’s decision to formally oppose ‘The Voice’ in line with their National Party colleagues has politicised the issue.

“This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted before the Coalition’s shadow cabinet reshuffle this week which saw two Aboriginal women – Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price (Northern Territory) and Senator Kerrynne Liddle (South Australia) – promoted to the front-bench.

“Both Senator Nampijinpa Price and Senator Liddle are opposed to ‘The Voice’ and will give weight and credibility to the Coalition’s argument that ‘The Voice’ is not the right solution to resolve the issues facing indigenous Australians.”

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Australians surveyed were each asked the following question:

• Question 1: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?” Yes 46% (down 7% points since December 2022) cf. No 39% (up 9% points) cf. Undecided 15% (down 2% points).
• Question 2: “And why do you say that?”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,181 Australian electors aged 18+ from Friday April 14 - Tuesday April 18, 2023.