New Zealand: National/Act NZ on 44.5% are now just ahead of Labour/Greens on 42% but neither is set for a majority
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for April 2023 shows the election is too close to call with a right-leaning potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 44.5%, down 0.5% points since March ahead of a left-leaning potential Labour/ Greens coalition on 42%, down 1.5% points.
For the potential right-leaning coalition support for National was unchanged at 32% while support for Act NZ was down 0.5% points to 12.5% - its lowest support so far this year.
In contrast, support for the governing Labour Party was down 3% points to 30% while support for their governing partners the Greens was up 1.5% points to 12% in April.
The results for April continue to show the New Zealand Election later in 2022 is on a knife-edge with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.
Maori Party are still in the box seat to determine New Zealand’s next Government
The results for April suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party on 4.5%, up 2.5% points on March.
Support for New Zealand First increased in April but is just short of the 5% threshold, up 1.5% points to 4.5% and not enough support to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.
A further 4.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, down 2% points from a month ago, including 2% (down 1.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party, 1.5% points who support Democracy NZ and 0.5% (down 0.5% points) who support the New Conservative Party.
A potential 58 seats for a National/Act NZ coalition and 56 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 58 seats, just ahead of the 56 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.
The projected results show the Maori Party with 6 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 929 electors during April. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3.5%, down 1.5% points, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 6pts to 80 in April
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 6pts to 80 in April to its lowest since former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned in January.
In April 2023 a majority of 55% (up 2.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to around a third, 35% (down 3.5% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 1.6pts to 79.3 and is just below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 79.8 on April 24-30, 2023.
Women favour a Labour/Greens coalition whereas men favour a National/Act NZ coalition
On an overall basis women favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 47% by 8.5% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 39%.
However, the split by age reveals younger and older women are not in alignment. Younger women aged 18-49 are the core support for the governing Labour/ Greens coalition with a majority support of 52.5% well ahead of the 29% of this age group who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ narrowly prefer a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 47.5% compared to 41.5% who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition – a gap of 6% points.
When it comes to men a narrow majority of 50.5% support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition compared to just over a third, 36.5%, who support the current Labour/ Greens governing coalition.
A large majority of 57.5% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a third, 31.5%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
There is a much closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with a slim plurality of 44% who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to 42% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is far higher amongst men at 17.5% compared to only 7% support amongst women.
Support for the Greens is higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Around one-in-eight women aged 18-49 (12%) and one-in-six men aged 18-49 (16.5%) support the Greens compared to 9.5% of women aged 50+ and 8.5% of men aged 50+.
The Maori Party attracts the support of 5% of women including 9% support from women aged 18-49 and 1.5% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 3.5% of men including 5% of men aged 18-49 and 1.5% of men aged 50+.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 65.5 in April
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating fell for a second straight month in April, down 6pts to 80 with the largest fall amongst men and especially younger men aged 18-49.
Among women overall now a majority of 55% (up 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 35% (down 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 84 (down 0.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was actually up by 9pts to 88 while it was down by 7.5pts to 80 for women aged 50+.
A large majority of men, 58.5% (up 7% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only around a third of men, 33.5% (down 7% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 75 (down 14pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was down 18.5pts to 83 while for older men aged 50+ it was down 10pts to only 65.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the New Zealand election is up for grabs only five months before Kiwis head to the polls in October with a potential National-Act NZ coalition only slightly favoured over the governing Labour-Greens coalition:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National-Act NZ coalition at 44.5% (down 0.5% points) in April just ahead of a potential Labour-led Government in coalition with the Greens at 42% (down 1.5% points).
“If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election National/Act NZ would hold 58 seats and Labour/Greens would hold 56 seats – leaving the Maori Party on 4.5% support (and a projected 6 seats) in the box seat to determine who would form Government.
“There is a continuing gender split when it comes to the two sides with women favouring a potential Labour-Greens coalition on 47% compared to 38.5% for National-Act NZ while a majority of men favour a potential National-Act NZ coalition on 50.5% compared to the currently governing Labour-Greens on 36.5%.
“These results show that any fifth party which can gain seats in Parliament is likely to be in the box seat to decide whether Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues in the job or is replaced by Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon later this year.
“The Maori Party is the most likely to be in this position but New Zealand First should never be counted out. Support for New Zealand First increased 1.5% points to 4.5% in April and the party is on the verge of crossing the 5% threshold to guarantee seats in Parliament it last reached in January 2023 (5%).
“The key indicators do not favour the Labour-led Government’s re-election prospects. The latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 6 points to 80. A clear majority of 55% (up 2.5% points since March) of New Zealanders say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only around a third, 35%, say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“In addition to low Government Confidence, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is stuck at only 79.3 in April. The index has now been below 80 for three straight months and has averaged only 79.1 over the last six months – well below the low of 84.8 reached at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“If both Government Confidence and Consumer Confidence remain stuck at such low levels over the next few months the chances of a re-elected Labour-led Government will diminish even further. However, the polling results for April show that as things stand this year’s New Zealand election remains far too close to call just five months before polling day.”
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – April 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – April 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – April 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
