Federal voting intention: Support for the ALP and L-NP Coalition is even in late March – ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%
Support for the ALP was down 1.5% to 50% in late March and now even with the L-NP Coalition on 50% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the support of minor parties and independents required for either of the major parties to form minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
A look at the States shows the biggest swing to the Coalition was in Queensland – up 5.5% points. The swing in Queensland came after the poor showing for the ALP at the previous week’s local government and key by-elections in the seats of Inala (19.5% swing to LNP) and Ipswich West (17.9% swing to LNP).
Primary support for the L-NP Coalition increased 1% to 38% and is now clearly ahead of the ALP on 31.5%, unchanged from a week ago.
Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 14% and One Nation support dropped 1% to 4.5%. Support for Independents was down 1.5% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,633 Australian electors from March 18-24, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
