ALP support plunges after the defeat of ‘The Voice’ Referendum: ALP 49.5% (down 4.5%) cf. L-NP Coalition 50.5% (up 4.5%)
The L-NP Coalition would now win a Federal Election as ALP two-party preferred support plunged 4.5% to 49.5% and is now behind the L-NP Coalition on 50.5% (up 4.5%) after all six States voted against the proposed ‘Voice to Parliament’ at the nation-wide referendum on Saturday October 14, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll taken in the first week after the referendum from Monday October 16 - Sunday October 22, 2023.
This is the first time the Roy Morgan Poll shows the Coalition leading the Albanese Government on a two-party preferred basis since last year’s Federal Election.
Primary support for the ALP was down 3% to 32% while support for the Coalition increased 2% to 36%.
Almost a third of electors, 32%, chose another party or an independent including the Greens on 14%, One Nation on 4.5%, Independents on 8.5% and Other Parties on 5%.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 4.5 points to only 78 – well below the neutral level of 100. Now a majority of 53.5% of electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and less than a third, 31.5%, say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
These results are based on Roy Morgan surveying of a representative sample of 1,383 Australian electors in the week following the referendum, from Monday October 16 – Sunday October 22.
Further details on the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention, including State breakdowns, will be provided in today’s Roy Morgan Market Research Update and Weekly Update Video.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
