Support for ‘No’ now at 50% leads support for ‘Yes’ now at 45% with 5% undecided
The latest read from Roy Morgan surveying conducted up until Sunday shows 50% of Australians say they will vote ‘No’, or are leaning towards voting ‘No’, to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice’ compared to 45% that say they would vote ‘Yes’, or are leaning towards voting ‘Yes’, leaving only 5% of respondents that are still undecided.
Respondents around Australia were asked: “This month’s referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?”
If ‘Undecided’ respondents are removed the split in favour of the ‘No’ vote is 53% (down 3% in a week, although in line with figures released two weeks ago) cf. 47% (up 3% in a week). However, past experience with surveys conducted before previous referenda shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote meaning the actual figure is likely to be a larger majority in favour of ‘No’ than suggested here by these results.
Later this week Roy Morgan will be releasing the full results of surveying over the last two weeks, including detailed State-by-State, Gender, Age and Party support breakdowns.
This special Roy Morgan survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 905 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday October 2 - Sunday October 8, 2023.
‘Yes’ vote leads in Victoria and Tasmania while ‘No’ vote leads in Queensland, WA, SA and NSW
The road to a successful referendum demands not only a majority of people nationally but also a majority of people in a majority of states (at least four out of six).
Roy Morgan surveying on ‘The Voice’ over the last two weeks shows support for ‘The Voice’ is highest in Victoria and Tasmania.
However, the ‘No’ case is clearly leading in Queensland and Western Australia, while also leading in New South Wales and South Australia which are expected to vote ‘No’.
The ‘gender gap’ continues with a majority of men opposed and women narrowly in favour
The results by gender are similar to those of a week ago with a majority of men saying they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ while there are slightly more women who say they will vote ‘Yes’ rather than ‘No’.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Australians surveyed were each asked the following question:
- “This month’s referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?” Yes: 41% (up 4% in a week); No: 45% (down 1%) and Undecided: 14% (down 3%).
- Respondents who were ‘Undecided’ were then asked, “Well, which way are you leaning in the referendum? Yes or No.” This is the first time this question has been asked of undecided respondents.
- ‘Yes’, or leaning towards voting ‘Yes’, 45% (including 4% who were ‘undecided’ but are leaning towards ‘Yes’ and in total up 8% points from a week ago) cf. ‘No’, or leaning towards ‘No’, 50% (including 5% who were ‘undecided’ but are leaning towards ‘No’ and in total up 4% points from a week ago) cf. ‘Undecided’ 5% (down 9% after ‘Undecided’ voters are prompted which way the are leaning and down 12% from a week ago).
- Previous question asked in December 2022, April 2023 and May 2023 was: "If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?"
This special Roy Morgan survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 905 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday October 2 – Sunday October 8, 2023.
See previous releases for detailed tables on the results of our previous surveys on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ conducted in December 2022, April 2023, May 2023 & September 2023.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
