ALP leads on two-party preferred support on the back of high Greens primary vote: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%
Support for the ALP was up 1% to 51% during the Easter week and ahead of the Coalition on 49% on a two-party preferred basis – although primary support for both major parties dropped.
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the Albanese Government re-elected with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
Primary support for the Coalition was down 0.5% to 37.5% ahead of the ALP on only 30%, down 1.5% from a week ago. Importantly for Labor, support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 15.5% - the highest level of support for the Greens for over six months since mid-September 2023. This high level of Greens support is providing the preference flow to keep Labor ahead on the two-party preferred support.
At the 2022 Federal Election the ALP and Greens scored a combined vote of 44.9% and now have combined support 45.5% due to the increase in Greens support – 3.2% higher than in 2022.
For the other parties, One Nation support dropped 1% to 3.5%. Support for Independents was up 1.5% to 9% and support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,677 Australian electors from March 25-31, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
