ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.8% in mid-December – up from 4.7% for the month of November
The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of December 9-15, 2024. This figure is below the average this year of 4.9%, but up 0.1% points from the month of November.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2024 shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – unchanged from the last two months of September and October and below the average so far this year of 4.9%.
Looking back over the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% - 5.3% and averaged 4.9%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – Nov. 2024).
Petrol prices increased by five cents per litre in November to the highest since August 2024
The month of November saw average retail petrol prices increase by five cents per litre to $1.80 per litre. During November, average retail petrol prices dropped to a low of $1.73 in late November. However, after the month of November ended average retail petrol prices have subsequently increased to back over $1.80 per litre during the first two full weeks of December while weekly inflation expectations also inched higher in December compared to their average for the month of November.
Looking back, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.70 per litre for a record 117 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – over two years. Average retail petrol prices hit a low of $1.73 per litre in late September, again in mid-October and for a third time in late November.
Looking longer-term, average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.89 per litre since late February, but this has dropped to an average of $1.79 per litre since early August over the last four months.
The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations, which have increased marginally in December, but the overall trend is for lowering inflation. The latest official ABS Quarterly annual CPI estimate at 2.8% for the September quarter 2024, was a decrease of 1% point from the 3.8% recorded for the June quarter 2024.
The official inflation estimate of 2.8% for the 12 months to September quarter 2024 is now within the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle and has led to increasing discussion of when the RBA might commence an interest rate cutting cycle early in 2025.
The next ABS Monthly CPI figure for November 2024 is due to be released early next month (January 8).
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2024
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
Inflation Expectations are highest in Queensland, lowest in Tasmania
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows Queensland has the highest Inflation Expectations for a second straight month at 4.9%, despite dropping 0.4% points from a month ago – the largest monthly fall of any State.
Offsetting the decrease in Queensland, there were small increases in other States including New South Wales, up 0.1% points to 4.8%, Victoria, up 0.3% points to 4.8%, Western Australia, up 0.1% points to 4.7% and South Australia, up 0.4% points to 4.7% - the largest monthly increase of any State.
For a second straight month Inflation Expectations remained lowest in Tasmania at only 4.1%, unchanged on a month ago.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas were unchanged at 4.9% and remain clearly higher than in Capital Cities at 4.6%, also unchanged on a month ago.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% in mid-December, up 0.1% points from the monthly estimate of 4.7% for November, indicating inflationary pressures in the economy remain sticky despite having dropped from earlier in the year:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia have increased slightly in December and are now at 4.8%, up 0.1% points from the month of November (4.7%). Inflation Expectations for the month of November were unchanged from both October (4.7%) and September (4.7%).
“Average retail petrol prices hit lows of $1.73 in each of late September, mid-October and again in the last week of November. Importantly, since reaching that level average retail petrol prices have steadily increased in December and are now again above $1.80 per litre and putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations and broader inflation.
“However, over the longer-term petrol prices have been above $1.70 per litre for 117 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – well over two full years above this mark. In addition, so far this year average weekly petrol prices have averaged $1.89 per litre since late February.
“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the November 2024 monthly CPI estimates in early January. The estimates will be keenly watched to see if the monthly estimate continues at its low rate. The ABS estimated monthly annual inflation was only 2.1% in the both the year to September 2024 and the year to October 2024 – at the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations suggest the upward pressures on inflation were muted during November but have increased marginally during the first few weeks of December as average retail petrol prices resumed their climb.
“The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from December 2014 – November 2024 and includes interviews with 6,012 Australians aged 14+ in November 2024.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
| Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2024) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Average |
| 2010 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2014 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |||
| Monthly Average | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8 | |||||||||||||
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations
To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
