In October Australian unemployment dropped to 9.2% as full-time employment grew and over 100,000 left the workforce
In October 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 60,000 to 1,450,000 (down 0.3% to 9.2% of the workforce) as over 100,000 people left the workforce. Full-time employment grew in October, but part-time employment declined by even more leading to an overall decline in employment.
The Australian workforce decreased by 118,000 to 15,697,000 in October and overall employment decreased by 58,000 to 14,247,000. This meant ‘real’ unemployment was down by 60,000 on September.
The October Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
- Overall employment decreased in October driven by a decline in part-time employment:
Australian employment dropped 58,000 to 14,247,000. This decrease was driven by a fall in part-time employment, down 190,000 to 4,743,000, but full-time employment increased 132,000 to 9,504,000 – a new record high for full-time employment.
- Unemployment decreased in October driven by the increase in full-time employment:
In October 1,450,000 Australians were unemployed (9.2% of the workforce, down 0.3%), a decrease of 60,000 from September. The decrease was driven by the increase in full-time employment which led to fewer people looking for full-time work, down 68,000 to 515,000. However, there was a small increase in those looking for part-time work, up 8,000 to 935,000.
- Overall unemployment and under-employment were virtually unchanged at 18.6% in October:
In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.48 million Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 22,000 from September. In total 2.93 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October.
- Comparisons with two years ago show rapidly increasing workforce is driving employment growth:
The workforce in October was 15,697,000 (down 118,000 from September, but up a large 867,000 from two years ago) – comprised of 14,247,000 employed Australians (down 58,000 from a month ago, but up a large 779,000 from two years ago) and 1,450,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 60,000 from a month ago, but up 88,000 from two years ago).
ABS Comparison
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for September but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in September 2024 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 562,900. Significantly, this is over 64,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the six years to September 2019 (498,620) – a difference of 64,280.
If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (64,280) who are working fewer hours due to illness, injury or sick leave is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,576,900 we find a total of 1,641,180 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 10.8% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2024)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – October 2024. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for October show a decrease in unemployment driven by a rise in full-time jobs (which drove a decline in those looking for full-time jobs) and a significant decline in the overall workforce:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for October show total Australian unemployment or under-employment down slightly to 2,926,000 (18.6% of the workforce, down 0.1%).
“The small decrease was driven by a fall in ‘real unemployment’ which dropped 60,000 to 1,450,000 (9.2% of the workforce, down 0.3%). In contrast, under-employment increased by 22,000 to 1,476,000 (9.4% of the workforce, up 0.2%).
“The main driver of the fall in unemployment in October was the increase in full-time employment which increased by 132,000 to a record high above 9.5 million for the first time. This drove the number of Australians looking for full-time jobs down significantly, by 68,000 to 515,000.
“In contrast, the part-time jobs market moved in opposite directions. Part-time employment dropped by 190,000 and those looking for part-time jobs increased, although only marginally (up 8,000). Many of those that were in part-time employment during September simply left the workforce in October.
“Looking longer-term the employment trends since borders re-opened and pandemic-era restrictions ended in late 2022 has been for rapid population growth powering a sharp rise in the workforce and plenty of new jobs. These latest figures for October show that the Australian employment market is providing new jobs, but not at a rate to keep pace with the rapidly growing population.
“Over the last two years since October 2022 the Australian population has increased by a record of over 1.4 million – more people than live in Australia’s fifth largest city of Adelaide. The increase in population is clearly more than double the average population growth across a two-year period over the last 25 years of 575,000.
“Since October 2022 the workforce has increased by over 850,000 and the employment level has increased by 780,000. As you can see, there is a significant gap there with employment increases not keeping pace with the growing workforce. That gap, of over 70,000, has led to a clear increase in unemployment since pandemic restrictions were ended in late 2022.
“Looking back over this period, the rapidly inflating Australian population and workforce has led to a persistently high level of labour under-utilisation. Since July 2022 total unemployed and under-employed has been stuck above 2.5 million, and more recently, over the last 18 months since May 2023 total labour under-utilisation has been stuck above 2.7 million and averaged well over 2.9 million since then.
“These figures show that as we close in on another federal election, due by early next year, the Federal Government must make tackling these persistent high levels of unemployment under-employment the number one priority heading into that election.”
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 912,468 Australians aged 14 and over between December 2008 and October 2024 and includes 6,023 telephone and online interviews in October 2024. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
