In July Australian unemployment jumped to 10.1%; highest unemployment for a year since August 2023 as part-time jobs were lost in July following the Mid-Year sales
In July 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 294,000 to 1,597,000 (up 1.8% to 10.1% of the workforce). This is the highest level of unemployment for a year since August 2023 and was caused by a significant decline in part-time jobs during July after the end of the Mid-Year sales.
Part-time employment in July dropped by 176,000 to 4,765,000 – the lowest level of part-time employment for a year since July 2023. Although full-time employment increased marginally in July, up 24,000 to 9,390,000, overall employment for the month dropped by 152,000 to 14,155,000.
The July Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
- Overall employment declines in July driven by fall in part-time employment:
Australian employment dropped 152,000 to 14,155,000 in July. This decline was driven by a fall in part-time employment, down 176,000 to 4,765,000 – the lowest level of part-time employment for exactly a year since July 2023. In contrast, full-time employment increased marginally, up 24,000 to 9,390,000.
- Unemployment increased in July to its highest for a year since August 2023:
In July 1,597,000 Australians were unemployed (10.1% of the workforce, up 1.8%), an increase of 294,000 from June and the highest level of unemployment for a year since August 2023 (1,686,000). It is also the highest rate of unemployment for nearly a year since September 2023 (10.2%).
The increase in unemployment was driven by more people looking for both full-time work, up 188,000 to 657,000, and part-time work, up 106,000 to 940,000.
- Overall unemployment and under-employment jumped 2.5% points to 19.8% in July:
In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 132,000 from June. In total 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 2.5%) were either unemployed or under-employed in July.
- Comparisons with a year ago show rapidly increasing workforce is driving employment growth:
The workforce in June was 15,752,000 (up 142,000 from June, but up 591,000 from a year ago) – comprised of 14,155,000 employed Australians (down 152,000 from a month ago but up 375,000 from a year ago) and 1,597,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 294,000 from a month ago and up 216,000 from a year ago).
ABS Comparison
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.1% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for June but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.6%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in June 2024 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 644,000. Significantly, this is almost 200,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the five years to June 2019 (445,000) – a difference of 199,000.
If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (199,000) is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,591,400 we find a total of 1,790,400 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 11.9% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2024)
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for July show a sharp increase in unemployment driven by a fall in part-time employment after the annual Mid-Year / End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales period ended:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for July show total Australian unemployment or under-employment increasing significantly, up 406,000 to 3,132,000 (19.8% of the workforce, up 2.5%). The overall level of unemployment and under-employment in July is virtually unchanged from April (3,129,000, 19.8%) before the period of the annual Mid-Year / End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales.
“There were large increases in both key measures of labour under-utilisation in July. ’Real’ unemployment increased 294,000 to 1,597,000 (10.1% of the workforce, up 1.8%) and under-employment increased 132,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%, up 0.7%).
“The decrease in part-time employment in July drove the increase in unemployment, down 176,000 to 4,765,000 – the lowest level of part-time employment for a year since July 2023. In turn, ‘Real’ unemployment has increased to its highest for a year since August 2023 (1,686,000). Despite the decrease in part-time employment, full-time employment increased marginally, up 24,000 to 9,390,000.
“A longer-term look at overall levels of unemployment and under-employment shows the figure has increased to its highest for nearly four years since October 2020, during the early period of the pandemic and extensive lockdowns, when 3.15 million Australians (22.2%) were unemployed or under-employed.
“The employment trends since borders re-opened and pandemic-era restrictions ended in late 2022 has been for rapid population growth powering a sharp rise in the workforce and plenty of new jobs. These latest figures for July show that the employment market is clearly struggling to provide jobs to all those in the rapidly growing workforce.
“These trends continued in July with the labour force experiencing a large increase in population compared to a year ago (+687,000) – a rate clearly more than double the average annual population growth over the last 25 years of 292,000.
“This population increase has been the driver of a growing workforce, up by 591,000 to a near-record high of over 15.7 million in July 2024. In turn, the increasing workforce has led to a large rise in employment, up 375,000 to well over 14.1 million.
“The level of labour under-utilisation has also increased significantly from a year ago. ‘Real’ unemployment has increased 216,000 to 1,597,000 and under-employment is up 101,000 to 1,535,000. The combined increase of these two key indicators is a large 317,000.
“The continuing level of high unemployment and under-employment (3.13 million, nearly 1-in-5 Australians in the workforce) shows the labour market is struggling to provide jobs for all those joining the workforce. Tackling the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment must be the number one priority for the Federal Government which is due to face an election during the next year.”
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 994,167 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and July 2024 and includes 6,033 telephone and online interviews in July 2024. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
