In June Australian unemployment dropped to 8.3%; the lowest unemployment since September 2022
In June 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 62,000 to 1,307,000 (down 0.4% to 8.3% of the workforce). This is the lowest rate of unemployment for nearly two years since September 2022 although overall employment is virtually unchanged above 14.3 million.
Although unemployment decreased in June as people left the workforce, under-employment increased by a similar amount in the month, up 65,000 to 1,403,000. Taken together overall unemployment and under-employment in June is virtually unchanged at 2.7 million (17.3% of the workforce).
The June Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
- Overall employment reaches virtually unchanged in June near record high above 14.3 million:
Australian employment was virtually unchanged at 14,307,000 (down 3,000) in June. There was a shift to more part-time employment though with 4,941,000 (up 72,000) now employed part-time while full-time employment was down 75,000 to 9,366,000. Increasing part-time employment is often associated with a rise in under-employment – which increased by 65,000 in June.
- Unemployment decreased for a second straight month in June to its lowest for over a year:
In June 1,307,000 Australians were unemployed (8.3% of the workforce, down 0.4%), a decrease of 62,000 from May and the lowest level of unemployment for over a year since May 2023 (1,258,000). It is also the lowest rate of unemployment for nearly two years since September 2022 (8.1%).
The fall in unemployment was driven by fewer people looking for full-time work, down 131,000 to 469,000 while there was an increase in those looking for part-time work, up 69,000 to 834,000.
- Overall unemployment and under-employment was virtually unchanged at 17.3% in June:
In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.4 million Australians (9% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 65,000 from May. In total 2.7 million Australians (17.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in June.
- Comparisons with a year ago show rapidly increasing workforce is driving employment growth:
The workforce in June was 15,610,000 (down 65,000 from May, but up 404,000 from a year ago) – comprised of a near record high 14,307,000 employed Australians (virtually unchanged from a month ago but up a massive 673,000 from a year ago) and 1,303,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 62,000 from a month ago and down 269,000 from a year ago).
ABS Comparison
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.3% is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.0% for May but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in May 2024 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 602,500. This is around 177,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the five years to May 2019 (425,820) – a difference of 176,680.
If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (176,680) is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,606,900 we find a total of 1,783,580 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 11.9% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2024)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – June 2024. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for June show employment levels virtually unchanged on a month ago and unemployment dropping to its lowest for over a year as people left the workforce:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for June show total Australian unemployment or under-employment virtually unchanged at 2,706,000 (17.3% of the workforce, up 0.1%). ’Real’ unemployment dropped 62,000 to 1,303,000 (8.3% of the workforce, down 0.4%) although under-employment increased 65,000 to 1,403,000 (9.0%, up 0.5%).
“The employment trends since borders re-opened and pandemic-era restrictions ended in late 2022 has been for rapid population growth powering a sharp rise in the workforce and plenty of new jobs.
“These trends continued in June with the labour force experiencing a large increase in population compared to a year ago (+755,000) – a rate almost three times higher than the average annual population growth over the last 25 years of 290,000.
“This population increase has been the driver of a growing workforce, up by 404,000 to a near-record high of over 15.6 million in June 2024. In turn, the increasing workforce has led to a large rise in employment, up 673,000 to a near record high of over 14.3 million.
“The good news is that for the first time since pandemic restrictions ended both unemployment and under-employment are now lower than 12 months ago – a sign the labour market is starting to ‘catch-up’ by providing jobs to a larger share of the expanded workforce. Unemployment is down by 269,000 and under-employment is down by 12,000, a total decline of 281,000 between the two indicators.
“One factor that appears to be driving some of the employment growth we are witnessing are the pressures brought on by cost-of-living concerns and high levels of mortgage stress – Mortgage stress was at 29.7% of mortgage holders in May – equating to over 1.5 million people and one of the ten highest figures for mortgage stress on record for the index stretching back over 15 years.
“As finances are squeezed and households need to supplement existing sources of income to keep making essential payments – including for mortgages and also payments for electricity, gas and other daily essentials – more people are being drawn into the workforce to stave off financial trouble.
“The continuing level of high unemployment and under-employment (2.7 million, over 1-in-6 Australians in the workforce) shows the labour market is struggling to provide jobs for all those joining the workforce. Tackling the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment must be the number one priority for the Federal Government which is due to face an election during the next year.”
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 988,134 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and June 2024 and includes 7,521 telephone and online interviews in June 2024. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
