In September Australian unemployment increased to 9.5% as workforce grew to a record high; but not enough new jobs created
In September 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 87,000 to 1,510,000 (up 0.4% to 9.5% of the workforce) as over 100,000 people joined the workforce, but overall employment was virtually unchanged, up only 17,000 on a month ago.
The Australian workforce increased by 104,000 to a record high 15,815,000 in September, but employment increased by only 17,000 to 14,305,000. This meant ‘real’ unemployment increased by 87,000.
The September Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
- Overall employment increased in September driven by jump in part-time employment:
Australian employment increased 17,000 to 14,305,000. This increase was driven by a jump in part-time employment, up 32,000 to 4,933,000 while full-time employment dropped 15,000 to 9,372,000.
- Unemployment increased in September with more people looking for full-time and part-time work:
In September 1,510,000 Australians were unemployed (9.5% of the workforce, up 0.4%), an increase of 87,000 from August. The increase was driven by more people looking for full-time work, up 31,000 to 583,000, and more people looking for part-time work, up 56,000 to 927,000.
- Overall unemployment and under-employment was virtually unchanged at 18.7% in September:
In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.45 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 43,000 from August. In total 2.96 million Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September.
- Comparisons with a year ago show rapidly increasing workforce is driving employment growth:
The workforce in September was 15,816,000 (up 105,000 from August, and up a large 497,000 from a year ago) – comprised of 14,305,000 employed Australians (up 17,000 from a month ago and up a large 550,000 from a year ago) and 1,510,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 87,000 from a month ago, but down 54,000 from a year ago).
ABS Comparison
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.5% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for August but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in August 2024 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 634,200. Significantly, this is over 115,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the six years to August 2019 (518,650) – a difference of 115,550.
If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (115,550) who are working fewer hours due to illness, injury or sick leave is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,615,100 we find a total of 1,730,650 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 11.5% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2024)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – September 2024. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for September show an increase in unemployment driven by a jump in the workforce with not enough new jobs being created to soak up all these new entrants looking for work:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for September show total Australian unemployment or under-employment increasing slightly to 2,964,000 (18.7% of the workforce, up 0.1%).
“The small increase was driven by a rise in ‘real unemployment’ which increased 87,000 to 1,510,000 (9.5% of the workforce, up 0.4%). In contrast, under-employment declined by 43,000 to 1,454,000 (9.2% of the workforce, down 0.3%).
“The main driver of the increased level of unemployment in September was the rapidly rising workforce which increased by over 100,000 compared to August, however, only 17,000 net new jobs were created in September – a sizable gap.
“The new jobs created in September were of a part-time nature with that metric increasing 32,000 to 4,933,000. In contrast, full-time employment was soft, and fell 15,000 to 9,372,000. Nevertheless, when compared to a year ago full-time employment has shown the most sustained increases, up 409,000 while part-time employment has increased 141,000.
“The employment trends since borders re-opened and pandemic-era restrictions ended in late 2022 has been for rapid population growth powering a sharp rise in the workforce and plenty of new jobs. These latest figures for September show that the Australian employment market is providing new jobs, but not at a rate to keep pace with the rapidly growing population.
“Over the last two years since September 2022 the Australian population has increased by a record of over 1.4 million – more people than live in Australia’s fifth largest city of Adelaide. The increase in population is clearly more than double the average population growth across a two-year period over the last 25 years of 572,000.
“Since September 2022 the workforce has increased by over 900,000 and the employment level has increased by 600,000. As you can see, there is a significant gap there with employment increases not keeping pace with the growing workforce. That gap, of over 300,000, has led to a significant increase in unemployment since pandemic restrictions were ended in late 2022.
“Looking back over this period, the rapidly inflating Australian population and workforce has led to a persistently high level of labour under-utilisation. Since July 2022 total unemployed and under-employed has been stuck above 2.5 million, and more recently, for over a year since May 2023 total labour under-utilisation has been stuck above 2.7 million and averaged over 2.9 million since then.
“These figures show that as we close in on another federal election, due by early next year, the Federal Government must make tackling these persistent high levels of unemployment under-employment the number one priority heading into that election.”
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 1,007,672 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and September 2024 and includes 7,506 telephone and online interviews in September 2024. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
