Swing to Coalition continues as two-party preferred lead over ALP increases: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%
Support for the Coalition increased 0.5% to 51% to edge further ahead of the ALP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
The extension of the youth curfew in Alice Springs until the end of the school holidays and the attention surrounding the new asylum seeker boat arriving in Western Australia continued to hurt support for the Albanese Government last week – especially on minor party preference flows.
Primary support for both major parties increased marginally this week with the Coalition up 0.5% to 38.5% and the ALP up 0.5% to 30%.
Support for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5% while One Nation was down 0.5% to 5.5% - both these minor parties are above their result at the last Federal Election. Support for Independents was down 1.5% to 7.5% while support for Other Parties increased 1% to 5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,706 Australian electors from April 8-14, 2024. Most of the interviews were conducted before Foreign Minister Penny Wong suggested Australia could recognise a Palestinian State; and before the tragedy at Westfield Bondi Junction on the weekend where six people were stabbed to death and more hospitalised.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
