Coalition takes two-party preferred lead over ALP after support for One Nation surges: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%
Support for the Coalition increased 1.5% to 50.5% to edge narrowly ahead of the ALP on 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis as Australians began to return from Easter holidays.
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
Several issues hurt the Albanese Government’s support last week, in particular the surge in crime in Alice Springs which forced the imposition of a youth curfew in the outback town. There was also the arrival of a new asylum seeker boat in Western Australia and the death of an Australian aid worker in Gaza.
Primary support for the Coalition increased 0.5% to 38% ahead of the ALP on only 29.5%, down 0.5% from a week ago. In addition, hurting the ALP on a two-party preferred basis was the decrease in support for the Greens, down 2% to 13.5%.
The biggest beneficiary of the decline in support for the ALP and Greens last week was One Nation, which surged 2.5% to 6% - the highest level of support for the party for six months since November 2023. The majority of One Nation preferences flow to the Coalition.
Support for Independents was unchanged at 9% and support for Other Parties was down 0.5% to 4%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,731 Australian electors from April 1-7, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
