February 02, 2024
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 93.6 in January
Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9438
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 93.6 in January. Perceptions of current conditions jumped, but confidence about the future fell.
- Inflation expectations bounced back, lifting from 3.9% to 4.3%.
Turning to the detail:
- The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 3 points to 99, while the current conditions index rose 5 points to 85.
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations rose another 4 points to -12% with 24% (unchanged) of New Zealanders now saying they are 'better off financially' than this time a year ago compared to 35% (down 4% points) who say they are 'worse off financially'. The result is still low but the highest since January 2022.
- Looking forward people are generally positive about their personal financial situations with a net 19% expecting to be 'better off financially' this time next year, although this is down 6 points from a year ago.
- However, people are still negative on buying conditions, with a net 19% thinking it’s a 'bad time to buy a major household item', although this is up 6 points from a month ago. That’s the highest level since August 2022 – probably related to falling inflation – but the weak level suggests ongoing soft per capita spending.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time eased 1 point to -22% with only 19% (up 1% point) expecting 'good times' for the economy over the next year while 41% (up 2% points) expect 'bad times'. The 5-year-ahead measure also fell 1 point, to +1% with 28% expecting 'good times' and 26% expecting 'bad times'.
- House price inflation expectations drifted lower to 3.9% year-on-year. Wellington has now fallen to the back of the pack at 3.4% year-on-year.
- Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations lifted from 3.9% to 4.3%. Household inflation expectations can be volatile, but they did a good job of identifying the inflation pick-up promptly in 2020, so are worth watching on the way down as well.
The wide gap between the current and forward-looking questions in the survey is starting to close. It’s early days, but such a pattern is typical as an economy recovers after a recession.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
