December 01, 2023
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 3.8pts to 91.9 in November
Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9403
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.8 points in November to 91.9, still a very subdued level but now at its highest for nearly two years since January 2022.
- The biggest jump was in the question about whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item. However, insofar as this question has overstated headwinds to retail spending in the high inflation environment, a rebound (to still-low levels) is unlikely to mean that the pressure on retailers is about to ease.
- Inflation expectations were little changed at 4.6%.
Turning to the detail:
- The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions was unchanged, while the current conditions index rose 9 points.
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 6 points to a net level of -19% points. Now an unchanged 22% of people say they are 'better off financially' than this time a year ago while 41% (down 6ppts) say they are 'worse off financially' (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2022).
- A net 16% expect to be better off this time next year, unchanged on a month ago.
- A net 25% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, a 13-point lift. The level remains very weak, consistent with ongoing softness in per capita retail spending.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 3 points to a net level of -21%. The 5-year-ahead measure lifted 4 points to a net level of +9% - the highest figure for this long-term indicator for over two years since September 2021.
- House price inflation expectations lifted again, from 3.8% to 4.2%, the highest read since February 2022. Lifts were seen in every region except the South Island outside of Canterbury.
- Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations ticked slightly higher from 4.5% to 4.6%.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
