October 27, 2023
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 1.7pts to 88.1 in October
Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9368
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 1.7 points in October to 88.1, with mixed moves across the questions. By far the biggest jump was in the question about expected economic conditions “in NZ as a whole”.
- Tellingly, the key question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, was down 4% points to 20%, while those who say it is a 'bad time to buy a major household item' increased 2% points to 58%; meaning the overall net result fell 6 points to -38%.
- Inflation expectations in October increased 0.3ppts to 4.5%, undoing most of last month’s fall.
Turning to the detail:
- The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions rose 6 points, while the current conditions index fell 4 points.
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 2 points to a net result of -25%. Now 22%, down 2% points, of New Zealanders say they are 'better off financially than this time last year' and 47%, up 1% point, say they are 'worse off financially'.
- A net 16% of New Zealanders expect to be 'better off financially this time next year', up 1 point.
- A net 38% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, a 6-point deterioration. The level remains very weak, consistent with ongoing softness in per capita retail spending.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time jumped a large 14 points to -18%. Now 19%, up 5% points, of New Zealanders say they expect 'good times' for the economy as a whole over the next 12 months compared to 37%, down 9% points, who expect 'bad times'. The 5-year-ahead measure of confidence in the economy also improved, lifting 2 points to a net result of +5%.
- House price inflation expectations lifted again, from 3.2% to 3.8%, the highest read in 20 months since early 2022. Lifts were seen in every region except the North Island outside of Auckland and Wellington.
- Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations lifted from 4.2% to 4.5%, undoing most of the previous month’s fall.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
