New Zealand: National/Act NZ on 45% are just ahead of Labour/Greens on 43% in May; but neither is set for a majority
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for May 2023 shows the election is too close to call with a right-leaning potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 45%, up 0.5% points since April ahead of a left-leaning potential Labour/ Greens coalition on 43%, up 1% point.
For the potential right-leaning coalition support for National was down 0.5% points at 31.5% - its lowest support since December 2021, while support for Act NZ was up 1% point to 13.5%.
In contrast, support for the governing Labour Party was up 1% point to 31% while support for their governing partners the Greens was unchanged at 12% in May.
The results for May continue to show the New Zealand Election later in 2022 is on a knife-edge with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.
Maori Party are still in the box seat to determine New Zealand’s next Government
The results for May suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party, unchanged on 4.5% in May.
Support for New Zealand First fell back in May, down 1% point to 3.5% and not enough support to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.
A further 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, down 0.5% points from a month ago, including 2% (unchanged) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (down 0.5% points) who support Democracy NZ and 0.5% (unchanged) who support the New Conservative Party.
A potential 58 seats for a National/Act NZ coalition and 56 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 58 seats, just ahead of the 56 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.
The projected results show the Maori Party with 6 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 952 electors during May. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4%, up 0.5% points, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 80 in May
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 80 in May, equal to its lowest since former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned in January.
In May 2023 a majority of 54.5% (down 0.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to around a third, 34.5% (down 0.5% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 0.1pts to 79.2 and is above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 76.2 on May 22-28, 2023.
Women favour a Labour/Greens coalition whereas men favour a National/Act NZ coalition
On an overall basis women favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 52% by 14% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 38%.
Women of all ages favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition. Younger women aged 18-49 are the core support for the governing Labour/ Greens coalition with a majority support of 56% well ahead of the 33.5% of this age group who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition.
Older women aged 50+ narrowly prefer a the governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 48% compared to 43% who support potential National/ Act NZ coalition – a gap of 5% points.
When it comes to men there is a clear preference for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 52% well ahead of the current Labour/ Greens governing coalition on 33%.
A large majority of 59% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a third, 30%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
There is a closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with 46% supporting a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to 36% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is higher amongst men at 16% compared to only 10.5% support amongst women.
Support for the Greens is higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Almost one-in-five women aged 18-49 (18.5%) and one-in-seven men aged 18-49 (14%) support the Greens compared to 9.5% of women aged 50+ and only 4.5% of men aged 50+.
The Maori Party attracts the support of 3.5% of women including 2.5% support from women aged 18-49 and 4% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 5.5% of men including 8% of men aged 18-49 and 3% of men aged 50+.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| Total | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 31 | 38 | 37.5 | 38.5 | 23.5 | 22 | 25.5 |
| Greens | 12 | 14 | 18.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 14 | 4.5 |
| Labour/ Greens | 43 | 52 | 56 | 48 | 33 | 36 | 30 |
| National | 31.5 | 27.5 | 19.5 | 35.5 | 36 | 33.5 | 39 |
| Act NZ | 13.5 | 10.5 | 14 | 7.5 | 16 | 12.5 | 20 |
| National/ Act NZ | 45 | 38 | 33.5 | 43 | 52 | 46 | 59 |
| Maori Party | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 5.5 | 8 | 3 |
| NZ First | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 3 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 |
| Others | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | |||||||
| Right Direction | 34.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 35.5 | 37.5 | 32.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 54.5 | 53 | 55.5 | 50 | 56.5 | 54.5 | 58.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 80 | 80.5 | 78 | 83.5 | 79 | 83 | 74 |
| Can’t say | 11 | 13.5 | 11 | 16.5 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 74 in May
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at a low mark of 80 in May.
Among women overall now a majority of 53% (down 2% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 33.5% (down 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 80.5 (up 0.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down 10pts to 78 while it was up 3.5pts to 83.5 for women aged 50+.
A large majority of men, 56.5% (down 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only just over a third of men, 35.5% (up 2% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 79 (up 4pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was unchanged at 83 while for older men aged 50+ it was up 8.5pts to only 74.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says with only four months to go until the election there is little to split the governing Labour-Greens coalition and a potential National-Act NZ coalition government with the Maori Party still in the box seat to decide the winner:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National-Act NZ coalition at 45% (up 0.5% points) in May just ahead of a potential Labour-led Government in coalition with the Greens at 43% (up 1% point).
“If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election National/Act NZ would hold 58 seats and Labour/Greens would hold 56 seats – leaving the Maori Party on 4.5% support (and a projected 6 seats) in the box seat to determine who would form Government.
“There is a continuing gender split when it comes to the two sides with women favouring a potential Labour-Greens coalition on 52% compared to 38% for National-Act NZ while a majority of men favour a potential National-Act NZ coalition on 52% compared to the currently governing Labour-Greens on 33%.
“These results show that any fifth party which can gain seats in Parliament is likely to be in the box seat to decide whether Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues in the job or is replaced by Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon later this year.
“The Maori Party is the most likely to be in this position but New Zealand First should never be counted out. Support for the Maori Party remained unchanged at 4.5% in May while support for New Zealand First was down 1% point to 3.5% – and well below the 5% threshold to guarantee seats in Parliament it last reached in the Roy Morgan Poll of January 2023 (5%).
“Despite the closeness of the race, the key indicators do not favour the Labour-led Government’s re-election prospects. The latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 80. A clear majority of 54.5% of New Zealanders say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 34.5% say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“In addition to low Government Confidence, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is stuck at only 79.2 in May. The index has now been below 80 for four straight months and has averaged only 82.1 since January 2022 – below the low of 84.8 reached at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“If both Government Confidence and Consumer Confidence remain stuck at such low levels over the next few months the chances of a re-elected Labour-led Government will diminish even further. However, the polling results for May show that as things stand this year’s New Zealand election remains far too close to call just four months before polling day.”
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
