Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows third straight weekly decline for the ALP Government: ALP 49.5% cf. L-NP 50.5%
The Coalition on 50.5% (up 0.5% from a week ago) now leads the ALP on 49.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last week.
The result matches the low-point the Albanese Government reached immediately after the defeat of ‘The Voice’ referendum in mid-October and is the third straight week of declines for the Government.
On primary vote the Coalition is now on 37.5%, up 1% from a week ago, and clearly ahead of the ALP on 29.5%, down 0.5%. The Greens are on 13.5%, up 0.5%, and One Nation is on 6.5%, up 0.5%.
There has been a loss of support for both Independents on 7%, down 1% and Other Parties on 6%, down 0.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,401 Australian electors from November 13-19, 2023.
For further details watch Roy Morgan’s weekly Market Research Update video presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine on Tuesday afternoon.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
