Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumps 7pts to 94.3 in September with rising concerns about the next 12 months
In September 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 94.3 (down 7pts since August 2024) due to rising concerns about business conditions over the next 12 months after the Stage 3 tax cuts gave a short-term boost to Business Confidence in July and August.
Businesses lost confidence about their own prospects over the next 12 months in September with a falling plurality of 41.1% (down 5.1ppts) of businesses that expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year.
There was also a significant decline in business confidence in investing in growth with just over a third, 36% (down 4.5ppts) saying the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’ – the lowest figure for this indicator for well over four years since April 2020. In contrast, a rising plurality of 45.6% (up 7.9ppts) say the next 12 months is a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.
In terms of the economy now a slim, and falling, majority of 52.2% (down 4.2ppts) of businesses expect there will be ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year compared to only 44.7% (up 3ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Business Confidence is now 16.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2, but a large 10.8pts higher than the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence of 83.5 for September 30 – October 1, 2024.
Roy Morgan Monthly Business Confidence - Australia
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, Dec 2010-August 2024. Average monthly sample over the last 12 months = 1,584.
Business Confidence is up from a year ago – driven by increases in the three largest States
Business Confidence for the month of September dropped up on a month ago (down 7pts), but up by a similar amount on a year ago, up 7.2pts on September 2023.
The increase in Business Confidence from a year ago has been driven by large increases in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland with increases by at least 7 points.
By far the largest increase was in Queensland, up a stunning 22.3pts to 99.2 in September. Queensland faces a State Election later this month at which the incumbent ALP Government is expected to be replaced by a new LNP Government led by David Crisafulli.
There were similar sized increases in the two largest States of New South Wales, up 7.9pts to 95.5, and Victoria, up 8.1pts to 89.6.
However, and despite a decrease of 4pts from a year ago, Business Confidence remains highest in Western Australia at 103.3 – the only State with Business Confidence in positive territory above 100.
In contrast, there were significant declines in Business Confidence in Australia’s two smallest States of South Australia, down 13.4pts to 87.3, and in Tasmania, down a massive 34.1pts to only 78.7.
Business Confidence by State in September 2023 vs September 2024
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, September 2023, n=1,498, September 2024, n=1,480. Base: Australian businesses. *Tasmanian Business Confidence is measured over two months: Aug. & Sept. 2023 cf. Aug. & Sept. 2024.
Public Administration & Defence, Electricity, gas & water, Education & Training, Recreation & Personal and Mining are the five most confident industries during August & September 2024
Over the last two months there were ten industries with Business Confidence in positive territory above the neutral level of 100: Public Administration & Defence, Electricity, gas & water, Education & Training, Recreation & Personal, Mining, Finance & Insurance, Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, Information, Media & Telecommunications, Manufacturing and Community Services.
The most confident industry in August & September 2024 was Public Administration & Defence on 130.4, up 44pts on a year ago followed by Electricity, gas & water on 120.7, up 18.9pts on a year ago. In a clear third place is Education & Training on 118.2, but down 1.9pts on a year ago when confidence in the sector was soaring after the full re-opening of Australia’s borders in late 2022 and well into 2023. Education & Training has now been amongst the top five most confident industries for over two years since June 2022.
In fourth place is Recreation & Personal on 114.8, and up 14.1pts on a year ago and filling out the top five is Mining on 114.3, and up a large 32pts on a year ago.
Other confident industries during August & September were Finance & Insurance on 111.9, Professional, Scientific & Technical Services on 110.6, Information, Media & Telecommunications on 107.1, Manufacturing on 106.2 and Community Services on 101.2.
The five least confident industries are led by Agriculture on only 75.2, but still up 6.7pts on a year ago. Agriculture has had low Business Confidence for longer than any other and has now been in negative territory below the neutral level of 100 since September 2022 and has averaged only 81.6 since then.
In second last place is Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 81.8, and down 9.5pts on a year ago. The Transport, Postal & Warehousing industry has been among the least confident industries this year and is the only industry for which confidence has averaged under 80 throughout the nine months so far this year.
Business Confidence in the Retail Industry is at only 92.7, the third lowest of any industry, and a worrying sign with the two biggest months of the year, November and December, set to start soon. Retailers will be looking for a spending injection from Australians shopping at the Black Friday or pre-Christmas sales.
Business Confidence for Top 5 and Bottom 5 Industries in August & September 2024
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, August & September 2024, n=2,961. Base: Australian businesses.
Note: In the chart above, green bars represent Business Confidence in positive territory above the national average and red bars represent Business Confidence well below the national average and below the neutral level of 100.
Business Confidence dropped 7pts to 94.3 in September as fewer businesses say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business:
- In September, just over a quarter of businesses, 28.2% (unchanged), said their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago – the equal lowest figure for this indicator for four years since October 2020 during the first year of the pandemic, while 42.7% (up 4.3ppts), said the business is ‘worse off’;
- Businesses’ views on their prospects for the next year fell in September but are still clearly the most positive of the five indicators with 41.1% (down 5.1ppts) expecting the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while a quarter, 25% (up 5.3ppts), expect the business will be ‘worse off’;
- Confidence regarding the performance of the Australian economy over the next year also fell in September with a slim majority of 52.2% (down 4.2ppts), expecting ‘good times’ while 44.7% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’;
- In addition, businesses were slightly more pessimistic on a net basis about the long-term future of the Australian economy over the next five years with 31.2% (up 2.1ppts) expecting ‘good times’ over the next five years compared to a clear majority of 59.1% (up 2.9ppts) expecting ‘bad times’;
- Net sentiment on whether now is a ‘good or bad time to invest in growing the business’deteriorated significantly in September with only 36% (down 4.5ppts, and the lowest figure for this indicator for over four years since April 2020) saying the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business and nearly half, 45.6% (up 7.9ppts) who say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says Business Confidence dropped by 7pts to 94.3 in September, erasing most of the gains made in the last two months after the introduction of the Stage 3 tax cuts gave the index a short-term boost in July and August:
“Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 7pts to 94.3 in September, primarily driven lower by a decline in confidence about the next 12 months.
“Now only 36% of businesses, down 4.5ppts from a month ago, say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’ – the lowest figure for this indicator for over four years since April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“In addition, a slim majority of 52.2% of businesses (down 4.2ppts) say they expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year while just 41.1% (down 5.1ppts) say they expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year – both down significantly on a month ago.
“Despite the decline in Business Confidence, there was some good news for businesses in September with the official ABS monthly inflation figures for August showing annual inflation dropping to 2.7% (down a large 0.8% points from July) – and within the RBA’s target range of 2-3% for the first time since 2021.
“If other indicators of inflation continue to trend in this direction the Reserve Bank will soon be embarking on a new cycle of interest rate cuts – as their central bank counterparts overseas have already begun.
“On a State-by-State basis Business Confidence is in positive territory only in Western Australia at 103.3, although this is down on a year ago. Business Confidence in Queensland (99.2) and New South Wales (95.5) is above the national average, but still in negative territory below the neutral level of 100, while the indicator is below 90 in Victoria (89.6), South Australia (87.3) and at only 78.7 in Tasmania.
“At an industry level, it is Public Administration & Defence which is the most confident industry in the months of August & September with a Business Confidence rating of 130.4 ahead of Electricity, gas & water (120.7), Education & Training (118.2), Recreation & Personal (114.8) and Mining (114.3).
“Also performing well are Finance & Insurance on 111.9, Professional, Scientific & Technical Services on 110.6, Information, Media & Telecommunications on 107.1 and Manufacturing on 106.2.
“At the other end of the scale are several industries with low Business Confidence led by Agriculture on only 75.2 and Transport, Postal & Warehousing on just 81.8. The Transport, Postal & Warehousing industry has been among the least confident industries this year and is the only industry for which confidence has averaged under 80 throughout the first nine months of the year.”
The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for August are based on 1,480 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory. Detailed findings are available to purchase on a monthly or annual subscription as part of the Roy Morgan Business Confidence Report.
For comments or more information please contact:
Michele Levine
CEO, Roy Morgan
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5215
Mobile: 0411 129 093
To learn more about Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations data call (+61) (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
