Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 6.2pts to 101.3 due to increased confidence about the economy
In August 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 101.3 (up 6.2pts since July 2024) due to increasing confidence from businesses about the performance of the Australian economy. The boost to Business Confidence came after the Stage 3 tax cuts were introduced for income taxpayers in July and the latest inflation figure dropped to 3.5%.
Businesses also grew more confident about their own performance over the next year and now 46.2% (up 7.4ppts) expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to only 19.7% (down 0.9ppts) expecting to be ‘worse off’ – the lowest figure for this indicator for well over two years since February 2022.
In terms of the economy now a majority of 56.4% (up 7.1ppts) of businesses expect there will be ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year compared to only 41.7% (down 7ppts) that expect ‘bad times’ – the biggest net positive margin for this indicator for well over two years since February 2022.
Looking longer-term businesses are still generally pessimistic, although there were positive moves in August, with a majority of 56.2% (down 4.7ppts) expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 29.1% (up 1.5ppts) that expect ‘good times’.
In addition, 40.5% (up 1.5ppts) say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’ compared to 37.7% (down 2.4ppts) that say it is a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business.
Business Confidence is now 9.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2, but a large 19pts higher than the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence of 82.3 for September 2-8, 2024.
Roy Morgan Monthly Business Confidence -- Australia
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, Dec 2010-August 2024. Average monthly sample over the last 12 months = 1,586.
Business Confidence is up from a year ago – driven by increases in most States
Business Confidence for the month of August was up on a month ago (up 6.2pts) and up by a similar amount on a year ago, up 6.6pts on August 2023.
The increase in Business Confidence from a year ago has been driven by large increases in South Australia, Victoria and Queensland with all three States up by at least 10 points. There was also a smaller increase in Western Australia and declines in New South Wales and Tasmania.
There was a large increase in South Australia, up by a massive 44.6pts to 104.0 and now with the highest Business Confidence of any State and just ahead of Victoria, up by a large 20.4pts to 103.8 – the second largest increase of any State from a year ago.
There were also increases in Queensland, up by 11.5pts to 102.0, and now just above the national average, and also in Tasmania, up 2.6pts to 98.4 to be just below the neutral level of 100.
In contrast, there was a decline in Business Confidence in New South Wales, down 8.3pts to 101.8, and still just above the national average in August, and a large decline in Tasmania, down 28pts to only 84.9.
Business Confidence by State in August 2023 vs August 2024
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, August 2023, n=1,555, August 2024, n=1,481. Base: Australian businesses. *Tasmanian Business Confidence is measured over two months: July & August 2023 cf. July & August 2024.
Mining, Electricity, gas & water, Information, Media & Telecommunications, Education & Training are the four most confident industries during July & August 2024
Over the last two months there were ten industries with Business Confidence in positive territory above the neutral level of 100: Mining, Electricity, gas & water, Information, Media & Telecommunications, Education & Training, Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, Finance & Insurance, Recreation & Personal, Manufacturing, Community Services and Property & Business Services.
The most confident industry in July & August 2024 was Mining on 133.5, up 31.2pts on a year ago ahead of Electricity, gas & water on 120.3, up 38.2pts on a year ago – the industry with the largest lift in confidence compared to a year ago.
In third place is Information, Media & Telecommunications on 117.4, up 20.4pts on a year ago just ahead of fourth placed Education & Training on 113.4, but down 4.6pts on a year ago when confidence in the sector was soaring after the full re-opening of Australia’s borders in late 2022 and well into 2023. Education & Training has now been amongst the top five most confident industries for over two years since June 2022.
Filling out the top five industries is Professional, Scientific & Technical Services on 112.4, up 14.1pts on a year ago just ahead of Finance & Insurance on 112.2.
Other confident industries during July & August were Recreation & Personal on 109.4, up 10pts on a year ago, Manufacturing on 106.7, up 8.4pts on a year ago, Community Services on 103.3, down 9.8pts on a year ago and Property & Business Services on 101.4, up 21.3pts on a year ago.
The five least confident industries are led by Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 80.2, down 2.3pts on a year ago, and Wholesale on 81.1 and down 10.3pts on a year ago. The Transport, Postal & Warehousing industry has been among the least confident industries since Summer began and is the only industry for which confidence has averaged under 80 throughout the eight months so far this year.
In third last place is Agriculture which has had low Business Confidence for longer than any other and is now at 82.8, but still up 7.1 pts from a year ago. Confidence in the Agriculture industry has been in negative territory below the neutral level of 100 since September 2022 and has averaged only 82.3 since then.
Accommodation & Food Services is the only other industry with Business Confidence below the level of 90 at 86.8, and down large 34.7pts on a year ago – the largest decline of any industry over the last year.
Business Confidence for Top 5 and Bottom 5 Industries in July & August 2024
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, July & August 2024, n=2,984. Base: Australian businesses.
Note: In the chart above, green bars represent Business Confidence in positive territory above the national average and red bars represent Business Confidence well below the national average and below the neutral level of 100.
Business Confidence increased 6.2pts to 101.3 in August as businesses became more confident about their own prospects and the fortunes of the Australian economy over the next year:
- In August, under a third of businesses, 28.2% (down 1.7ppts), said their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago – the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly four years since October 2020 during the first year of the pandemic, while 38.4% (down 0.5ppts), said the business is ‘worse off’;
- Businesses’ views on their prospects for the next year improved in August and are clearly the most positive of the five indicators with 46.2% (up 7.4ppts) expecting the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while under a fifth, 19.7% (down 0.9ppts, and the lowest figure for this indicator for over two-and-a-half years since February 2022), expect the business will be ‘worse off’;
- Confidence regarding the performance of the Australian economy over the next year improved significantly in August, and was the biggest driver of the monthly increase, with a majority of 56.4% (up 7.1ppts), expecting ‘good times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over two-and-a-half years since February 2022) while 41.7% (down 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over two-and-a-half years since February 2022);
- In addition, businesses were more optimistic about the long-term future of the Australian economy over the next five years with 29.1% (up 1.5ppts) expecting ‘good times’ over the next five years compared to a majority of 56.2% (down 4.7ppts) expecting ‘bad times’;
- Net sentiment on whether now is a ‘good or bad time to invest in growing the business’ improved in August with 40.5% (up 1.5ppts) saying the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business and 37.7% (down 2.4ppts) who say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says Business Confidence increased by 6.2pts to 101.3 in August, a second straight monthly increase after the Stage 3 tax cuts were introduced in July and confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over the next few years improved:
“Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 6.2pts to 101.3 in August as confidence in the performance of the Australian economy over the next few year, and next five years, improved. The introduction of the Stage 3 tax cuts in July has provided a boost to taxpayers and helped drive confidence among Australian businesses into positive territory above 100 for the first time in six months.
“Now a majority of 56.4% (up 7.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year – the highest figure for this indicator for over 2.5 years since February 2022, and 29.1% (up 1.5ppts) expect ‘good times for the economy over the next five years.
“There was further good news for businesses in August with the official ABS monthly inflation figures for July showing annual inflation dropping to 3.5% (down 0.3% points from June). If annual inflation continues to fall at that rate it will be within the RBA’s target range of 2-3% by the end of this month.
“On a State-by-State basis Business Confidence is in positive territory in four States in August – the first time since January 2023 since this many States had Business Confidence above 100. These four States include South Australia (104.0), Victoria (103.8), Queensland (102.0) and New South Wales (101.8), while the indicator is in negative territory below 100 in Western Australia (98.4) and Tasmania (84.9).
“At an industry level, it is Mining which is the most confident industry in the months of July & August with a Business Confidence rating of 133.5 ahead of Electricity, gas & water (120.3), Information, Media & Telecommunications (117.4) and Education & Training (113.4).
“Also performing well are Professional, Scientific & Technical Services on 112.4, Finance & Insurance on 112.2, Recreation & Personal on 109.4, Manufacturing on 106.7 and Community Services on 103.3.
“At the other end of the scale are several industries with low Business Confidence led by Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 80.2, Wholesale on 81.1 and Agriculture on 82.8. Business Confidence in Agriculture has now been below the neutral level of 100 for 23 months and averaged only 82.3.”
The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for August are based on 1,481 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory. Detailed findings are available to purchase on a monthly or annual subscription as part of the Roy Morgan Business Confidence Report.
For comments or more information please contact:
Michele Levine
CEO, Roy Morgan
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5215
Mobile: 0411 129 093
To learn more about Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations data call (+61) (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
