National/ ACT/ NZ First (56%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 40.5% – now at 15.5% points
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for March 2024 shows the new National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 56% (up 1% point from February) with a large lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 40.5% (down 0.5% points).
Support for National was up 2.5% to 38%, but support for ACT decreased 0.5% points to 11.5% and support for NZ First was down 1% to 6.5%.
Support for Labour was up 1.5% to 23% while support for the Greens was down 2% to 13.5% and support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 3.5%.
A further 3.5% (down 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (unchanged) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1% (down 0.5%) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Current level of support for National/ ACT/ NZ First would translate to 69 seats in Parliament
The survey results for March would lead to 69 seats (up one seat from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 51 seats (down four seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 47 seats (down two seats), support for ACT would equal 14 seats (up three seats) and NZ First would win eight seats (unchanged).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 29 seats (down five seats), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win 5 seats (down one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 931 electors from February 26 – March 24, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (down 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunges 17pts to 81 in March
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 17pts to 81 in March as sentiment turned heavily negative. Now only 35% (down 6.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while 54% (up 10.5% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 8.1pts to 86.4 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 82.8 on March 27 - April 2, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women narrowly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of the new National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 66%, more than double the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 31%.
In contrast, women marginally favour the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 51.5% - only 6.5% points ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 45%.
Support for the governing coalition is almost equally strong for men of all ages. For men aged 50+ there are 67% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First more than double the 31% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for NZ First (9%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is also strong support for the governing coalition with 65% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 31% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. This group also has the highest support for ACT on 14% - almost as much as the support for the Labour Party which registers only 14.5% in this demographic.
Women aged 50+ are clearly behind the new governing coalition with a majority of 53% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 46% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. The Labour Party has its strongest support amongst this demographic attracting 32% support.
However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 57.5% well ahead of the governing National/ACT/ NZ First coalition on 36.5%.
This demographic is the core of support for the Greens at 20.5%, almost double the support the Greens attract from any other gender and age group analysed. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October 2023 were drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | March 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 38 | 30.5 | 25.5 | 35 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 14 | 13 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5 | 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 9 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 56 | 45 | 36.5 | 53 | 66 | 65 | 67 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 23 | 30.5 | 29 | 32 | 16 | 14.5 | 17.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13.5 | 16 | 20.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 3 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 40.5 | 51.5 | 57.5 | 46 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Others | 5.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 35 | 23.5 | 23 | 24 | 46.5 | 43.5 | 50.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 54 | 62.5 | 64.5 | 60.5 | 45 | 48 | 42 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 81 | 61 | 58.5 | 63.5 | 101.5 | 95.5 | 108.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11 | 14 | 12.5 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for older men, but plunged for women
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunged 17pts to 81 in March 2024 – easily the lowest level of Government Confidence since last year’s New Zealand Election.
A plurality of men, 46.5% (down 3% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while almost as many, 45% (up 9% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 101.5 (down 12pts). The Government Confidence for older men aged 50+ was down by 4pts to 108.5. However, there was a larger decrease for younger men aged 18-49, down 19pts to 95.5.
Among women overall now a growing majority of 62.5% (up 11.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while fewer than a quarter, 23.5% (down 10% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 61 (down 21.5pts).
The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 plunged by 18.5pts to 58.5 – the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while Government Confidence plummeted by 24.5pts to 63.5 for women aged 50+ - clearly the largest fall for any group and down by a massive 42pts in only two months.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the honeymoon continues for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s new National-led Government (56%) with the coalition enjoying an almost 16% points lead over the Parliamentary Opposition of Labour/Greens/Maori (40.5%):
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition grew 1% point to 56% in March and an even more commanding lead over the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 40.5% (down 0.5%).
“The massive gender split in support continues with a clear majority of men, 66%, supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 31% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a massive difference of 35% points.
“In contrast, a slim majority of 51.5% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 45% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a difference of only 6.5% points. Overall, this represents a 41.5% points difference between men and women.
“This difference is starkest for younger New Zealanders. Men aged 18-49 support the governing coalition by 34% points over the Parliamentary Opposition while women of that age support the Parliamentary Opposition by 21% points – a massive overall gender difference of 55% points.
“Different gender and age groups favour different parties. While men of all ages have the strongest support for National (45%), younger men aged 18-49 provide the highest support for ACT (14%) and older men aged 50+ are the biggest supporters of New Zealand First (9%).
“In contrast, older women aged 50+ are the largest supporters of Labour (32%) while younger women aged 18-49 are easily the biggest supporters of the Greens (20.5%) – almost double the support the Greens attract from any other gender and age group.
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunged 17pts to only 81 in March – the lowest the indicator has been since last year’s New Zealand election. The plunge came as it was announced the New Zealand economy had been in recession in late 2023. Over the last six months of 2023 there was negative growth for December 2023 (-0.1%) which followed an even worse result for the September 2023 quarter (-0.3%).
“Now a majority of 54% of New Zealanders say ‘the country is going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 35% that say ‘the country is going in the right direction.’ This is the lowest result since the month of last year’s New Zealand Election.
“The Government Confidence Rating amongst women plunged in March – driving the overall decline. Government Confidence for older women aged 50+ was down by a massive 24.5pts to 63.5 and for women aged 18-49 was down 18.5pts to only 58.5.
“In contrast, Government Confidence amongst men remained significantly higher during March. For men aged 50+ Government Confidence eased by 4pts to 112.5 – and now the only gender and age group with a positive view on the direction of the country. For men aged 18-49 Government Confidence dropped by 19pts to 95.5.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
