ALP (57%) increases lead over the L-NP (43%) in mid-February as return of Parliament fails to provide a boost

ALP support is now at 57% (up 0.5% points since late January) cf. L-NP on 43% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted during February.

The swing to the ALP came as Parliament resumed sitting in early February but there was no let-up for the Government with tough questions for Prime Minister Scott Morrison at an early February appearance at the National Press Club. A week later later sexual abuse survivor, and former Australian of the Year, Grace Tame and former Parliamentary staffer, and alleged rape victim, Brittany Higgins also spoke and had little positive to say about Prime Minister Morrison or the L-NP Government.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Harold Holt at the 1966 Federal Election (L-CP 56.9% cf. ALP 43.1%).

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 2,796 Australian electors aged 18+ from January 31 – February 13, 2022. There were 6% of electors (down 1.5% points) who can’t say who they support.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Feb. 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.

ALP extends its primary voting intention lead over the L-NP in mid-February to 5.5% points

Primary support for the ALP increased 1% point to 38.5% in mid-February and is now 5.5% points ahead of the L-NP, unchanged on 33%. Support for the Greens was unchanged on 11.5%.

Support for One Nation increased 0.5% points to 4%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was down 0.5% points to 1.5%. Support for Other Parties was down 1% point to 3.5% while support for Independents was unchanged at 8%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP again leading in all six States

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States – and importantly with large leads in the key States of New South Wales and Victoria.

The ALP has significantly increased its lead in NSW since late January with the ALP now on 59% (up 5% points since late January) compared to the L-NP on 41% (down 5% points). This result represents a large swing of 11.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

During the survey period there were four crucial State by-elections in NSW at which the State L-NP Government led by Premier Dominic Perrottet retained two seats and lost another seat, Bega, after a big swing of 14% against the Government. The L-NP managed to retain the seat of Willoughby in Sydney, formerly held by Premier Gladys Berejiklian, despite a swing against of nearly 20%.

The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 57.5% (down 1.5% points since late January) compared to the L-NP on 42.5% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 4.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has retained its narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland with the ALP on 51.5% (unchanged since late January) ahead of the LNP on 48.5% (unchanged). This result represents a larege swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s lead in Western Australia has been trimmed slightly with the ALP on 53.5% (down 2% points since late January) cf. L-NP 46.5% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result reprensents a large swing of 9.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 59.5% (down 4.5% points since late January) well ahead of the L-NP on 40.5% (up 4.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a large swing of 8.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%, representing a large swing of 9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased by 2pts to 86.5 in mid-February

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 2ps to 86.5 in mid-February. Now only 35% (unchanged) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 48.5%, down 2% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

However, there remains a wide divergence of almost 40pts between different States, with Government Confidence above 100 only in South Australia at 101, while being below the neutral level of 100 in all five other States and lowest of all in Tasmania at only 65.5, although this is up 1.5pts on late January.

In a clear second place is Western Australia with a Government Confidence Rating of 91.5 while the three largest States are all clustered around the national average led by Queensland on 86.5, just ahead of Victoria on 86 and New South Wales on 84.5.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says the ALP has again strengthened its lead over the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis as the resumption of Parliament failed to produce a boost for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the L-NP Government:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 57% (up 0.5% points since late January) increasing its lead over the L-NP 43% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis as Federal Parliament resumed sitting.

“The third straight swing to the ALP has given the party its biggest two-party preferred lead over the L-NP so far during this term of Government. The 0.5% point swing to the ALP came after Parliament resumed sitting in early February and with under three months until the Federal Election is due to be held in mid-May.

“The L-NP Government had hoped to use the summer holiday period to ‘reset’ and recover from the impact of the ‘Delta wave’ which significantly reduced their support in the second half of 2021. However, the emergence of the ‘Omicron variant’ of COVID-19, which entered Australia in early December, caused havoc throughout the holiday period.

“The ‘Omicron wave’ is now rapidly receding but the Government has not had an easy time of it in February. Prime Minister Scott Morrison faced a grilling at the National Press Club in early February, including being asked about the price of bread and milk – which he was unable to answer.

“A week later the National Press Club hosted former Australian of the Year and child sexual abuse survivor, Grace Tame, and former Liberal Parliamentary Staffer, and alleged rape victim, Brittany Higgins, who both spoke about their experiences. Neither Ms. Tame nor Ms. Higgins had much positive to say about Prime Minister Scott Morrison or the Federal L-NP Government.

“The negative publicity for the Government, and for Prime Minister Scott Morrison in particular, surrounding these addresses to the National Press Club have raised new questions about Morrison’s leadership. Last week a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll on the Liberal Leadership showed for the first time that Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is preferred by 38.5% of electors ahead of Prime Minister Scott Morrison (31%) and Defence Minister Peter Dutton (12.5%). A further 2% of respondents named someone else and 16% had no preference.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”