ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased to 4.9% in late March – up from 4.6% for the month of February
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 4.9% for the week of March 17-23, 2025, up 0.3% points from the month of February, following four straight weeks of increases.
However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for February 2025 shows the measure at 4.6% for the month – a decrease of 0.4% points from January, and the lowest monthly Inflation Expectations since September 2021.
Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% - 5.3% since the start of 2024 and averaged 4.9%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – Feb. 2025).
Petrol prices were unchanged at $1.84 per litre in February; at their highest since August 2024
During February, average retail petrol prices started the month at $1.82 per litre and increased throughout the month to end the month at $1.86 per litre and an average retail petrol price throughout the month of $1.84 per litre. However, after February ended, average retail petrol prices have subsequently decreased marginally to around $1.83 per litre in late March although weekly inflation expectations have steadily increased in March compared to their average for the month of February.
Looking longer-term, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.70 per litre for a record 131 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – well over two years. Average retail petrol prices hit a low of $1.73 per litre in late September 2024, again in mid-October, and for a third time in late November 2024.
Looking back average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.88 per litre since early March 2024, but this has dropped to an average of $1.80 per litre since mid-September 2024 over the last six months.
The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations, which, although they dropped in February to their lowest for over three years since September 2021, have since increased during the month of March.
In better news, the latest official ABS Monthly annual CPI estimate at 2.5% for the year to January 2025 is directly within the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle. Official estimates of inflation have now been within the preferred target range for six straight months since August 2024.
The drop in official estimates of inflation led to the first cut in official interest rates for over four years since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic by the RBA in mid-February by +0.25% to 4.1%.
The next ABS Monthly CPI estimate for February 2025 is due to be released on Wednesday this week.
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2025
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
Inflation Expectations are now highest in Queensland and lowest in South Australia
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows declines in all six States during the month of February. Despite a significant drop of 0.5% points from a month ago, Queensland had the highest Inflation Expectations in February at 4.8%.
In second place are New South Wales with Inflation Expectations of 4.7%, down 0.2% points from a month ago, and Western Australia also on 4.7%, down a large 0.7% points on a month ago.
Inflation Expectations also decreased in Victoria, down 0.4% points to 4.6%, in Tasmania, down 0.3% points to 4.5% and in South Australia, down 0.6% points to 4.3%. Inflation Expectations are now lower in South Australia than any other State.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas decreased by 0.4% points to 4.8% in February and decreased by 0.5% points to 4.5% in Capital Cities – the lowest Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities for well over three years since September 2021.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 4.9% in late March, up 0.3% points from the monthly estimate of 4.6% for February, indicating that inflationary pressures remain persistent in the economy despite the fall in the official inflation estimate:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia increased in March and are now at 4.9%, up 0.3% points from the month of February (4.6%). However, Inflation Expectations for the month of February had dropped by 0.4% points from January to their lowest monthly result since September 2021.
“The dip in Inflation Expectations during February, and subsequent increases during the first few weeks of March, indicates the volatility of how Australians currently regard the level of inflation in the economy more broadly.
“Nevertheless, the official estimates of inflation have shown sustained reductions over the last year and the latest ABS monthly inflation estimate for the year to January 2025 shows inflation at 2.5% – at the mid-point of the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle.
“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the February 2025 monthly CPI estimates later this week. The estimates will be keenly watched to see if the estimates continue at their low rate and within the Reserve Bank’s target range – both for headline and core inflation.
“The sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in the broader economy over the last year during which official annual inflation fell from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024 – a fall of 1.7% points – led to the Reserve Bank cutting official interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1% in mid-February 2025 and looking to make further interest rate cuts in the months ahead – perhaps as soon as next week in April.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations show the decline in expectations during February was not sustained throughout March though, adding to concerns that inflationary pressures in the economy are ongoing.
“Of concern for those worried about a renewed outbreak of inflation is that average petrol prices in February were at $1.84 per litre – the highest since August 2024 – and this increase has been sustained during March at a similar level.
“The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from February 2015 – January 2025 and includes interviews with 6,086 Australians aged 14+ in January 2025.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
| Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2025) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Average |
| 2010 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2014 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||||||||||
| Monthly Average | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8 | |||||||||||||
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations
To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
