ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.6pts to 83.9 as buying intentions plunge after the end of the Black Friday/ Cyber Monday sales period
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.6pts to 83.9 in mid-December following the end of the Black Friday sales period. Consumer Confidence is now 2.1 points above the same week a year ago, December 11-17, 2023 (81.8), and 1 point above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with decreases in NSW, Victoria, and WA, offsetting small increases in Queensland and SA.
A look across the index shows the driver of this week’s decrease was a sharp fall in buying intentions after the end of the Black Friday/ Cyber Monday sales period.
Current financial conditions
- Now under a quarter of Australians, 21% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year were virtually unchanged this week with under a third of respondents, 31% (down 1ppt), expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- Now just one-in-ten Australians, 10% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 30% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to almost a fifth, 19% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- There was a plunge in buying intentions this week to their lowest since early November with 25% (down 5ppts) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a plurality of 47% (up 3ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
There are signs the upward trend in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has stalled, with the series down 4.5pts from the 2½ year peak a fortnight ago. Last week, confidence fell 1.6pts, to a nine-week low, despite the RBA signalling it was more comfortable with the inflation outlook following its December meeting, opening the door for rate cuts early next year. We expect the RBA to begin easing rates in May 2025, but a February cut is possible.
The decline in confidence was driven by a 7.9pt fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ measure. The subindex has dropped 10.6pts over the past fortnight following the conclusion of Black Friday sales. This may suggest anecdotal reports of stronger November spending reflected a bring-forward in end of year spending.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
