ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.9pts to 85.5 after the end of the Friday/Cyber Monday sales period
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.9pts to 85.5 this week after the end of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales weekend. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago, December 4-10, 2023 (80.8), and 2.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with a reversal of last weeks’ results including decreases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but increases in Victoria and South Australia.
A look across the index shows the driver of this week’s decrease was a reduction in confidence about people’s personal financial situations compared to a year ago and looking forward into next year.
Current financial conditions
- Now under a quarter of Australians, 22% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 50% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year deteriorated this week with under a third of respondents, 32% (down 2ppts), expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while only 33% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- Now under one-in-ten Australians, 9% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 31% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has improved this week with 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to a fifth, 20% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Although there was a slight decline this week, buying intentions did not revert to their level of two weeks ago and were little changed with 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a plurality of 44% (up 2ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declined 2.9pts last week, following the release of the softer-than-expected Q3 GDP data and the end of Black Friday related sales. The biggest falls were in households’ confidence in their financial conditions, especially over the next 12 months. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex declined 2.7pts following the conclusion of Black Friday sales events. That said, the subindex is still at its second strongest level since May 2022.
After picking up a few weeks ago, inflation expectations have eased 0.5ppt over the past fortnight to 4.5%. Inflation expectations have not been below 4.5% since August 2021.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
