Prabowo (46%) closes in on a first-round victory in the Presidential Election – but still just short of a majority
The latest Roy Morgan Poll on 2024 Indonesian Presidential voting intention shows Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto is on the verge of a first-round victory next week on 46% - up 3% points since December 2023 according to surveying conducted in January 2024 with 1,267 Indonesian electors aged 17+.
Prabowo has increased his lead over the second-placed candidate to 15% points – up from 13% points in December 2023. Surging into a clear second place is Anies Baswedan on 31% (up 7% points) and now favoured to go through to the second round if Prabowo falls short of a majority.
It appears that PDI-P candidate Ganjar Pranowo’s chance for victory has fallen as his support has dropped away significantly this year to only 23% (down 7% points).
Only 4% (up 1% point) of Indonesian electors can’t decide between any of these candidates or say they will not vote in the Presidential election.
President Joko Widodo, who won the election in 2014 and re-election five years later in 2019, is term limited and prevented from running for the position again this year.
The Indonesian general elections, including Presidential and legislative, are due to be held next week on February 14, 2024, with run-off elections scheduled four months later for mid-June 2024 if required.
Analysis by gender shows women prefer Prabowo by more than men do
A look at the gender split on voting intentions shows women giving Prabowo a 17% point lead over Anies in second place compared to a 15% point lead amongst men.
- Men: Prabowo (45%) cf. Anies (30%) cf. Ganjar (25%);
- Women: Prabowo (48%) cf. Anies (31%) cf. Ganjar (21%).
Support for Prabowo’s Gerindra party increases in the lead-up to the legislative elections
Support for Prabowo’s Advanced Indonesia Coalition is largely unchanged overall at 48% (down 1% point from December) but has consolidated around his Gerindra party – now on 28% (up 6.5% points). Gerindra has now overtaken the PDI-P to be the most widely supported party in Indonesia.
The other parties in the Advanced Indonesia Coalition have largely lost support in the last month with the Demokrats now on 7% (down 4.5% points), Golkar on 6% (down 4.5% points), PAN on 4% (up 1.5% points) and PSI on 3% (unchanged). There is negligible support for other minor parties in the coalition including PBB, Garuda, Gelora and PA.
Second-placed Anies leads the Coalition of Change for Unity which consists of PKS on 14% (up 5% points), NasDem on 8% (up 5% points), PKB on 5% (down 1.5% points) and minor parties Ummat, PDA, SIRA and PAS Aceh all with negligible support – a total of 27% support (up 8.5% points).
Third-placed Ganjar leads the Alliance of Political Parties which consists of the PDI-P on 22% (down 4.5% points), PPP on 1% (down 1% point), Perindo on 1% (up 0.5% points) and Hanura (under 0.5%) – a total of 24% support (down 5% points) spread between the four parties.
Legislature Voting Intention (January 2024): Prabowo’s Gerindra takes lead over PDI-P in January
In the latest Roy Morgan Poll shows leading Presidential candidate Prabowo’s Gerindra party taking the lead over the PDI-P in January. Gerindra’s support increased 6.5% points to 28% - more than double the level of support the party received in the 2019 Legislative Elections.
Support for President Jokowi’s political party, and the party of Presidential candidate Ganjar, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), dropped 4.5% points to 22% and into second place.
In third place is the PKS on 14% (up 5% points) followed by NasDem on 8% (up 5% points), Demokrat Party on 7% (down 4.5% points) and Golkar on 6% (down 4.5% points).
Other parties attracting 5% or less include PKB on 5% (down 1.5% points), the National Mandate Party (PAN) on 4% (down 1% point), the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) on 3% (unchanged), the United Development Party (PPP) on 1% (down 1% point), the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) on 1% (up 0.5% points) and a suite of other minor parties with less than 0.5% support.
Ira Soekirman, Director Roy Morgan Indonesia, says Defence Minister Prabowo is on the brink of securing the Presidency in the first round at next week’s election with his support increasing to 46% in January – up 3% points from a month ago:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian voting intentions shows leading Presidential candidate Prabowo has improved his chances of winning the Presidency next week with his support growing to 46% in January – and within striking distance of securing victory with a majority of the vote.
“Prabowo (46%) is now 15% points ahead of a surging second-placed Anies on 31% (up 7% points) while former favourite Ganjar appears out of the running on only 23% (down 7% points) only days before Indonesians vote in Presidential and legislative elections.
“To win a first-round election victory a Presidential candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote in the first round with a minimum 20% in half of all the provinces. Prabowo’s surge over the last few months means he is within sight of possibly achieving a first-round victory.
“Prabowo’s selection of President Jokowi’s son Gibran as his vice-presidential running mate in late October has underpinned the surge in support for the man who twice lost Presidential elections to Jokowi in 2014 (Jokowi 53.2% cf. Prabowo 46.8%) and 2019 (Jokowi 55.5% cf. Prabowo 44.5%).
“The surge in support for Prabowo has translated into a commanding lead for the parties in Prabowo’s eight-party ‘Advanced Indonesia Coalition’ – now at 48% and close to a majority. The coalition is led by Prabowo’s party Gerindra and joined by Golkar, Demokrats, PAN, PSI, PBB, Garuda and Gelora.
“Support for second-placed Anies’ ‘Alliance of Political Parties’ has surged 8.5% points to 27% in January. The leading parties in the alliance are PKS (14%) and NasDem (8%) – both of which have increased their support significantly in January – and joined by PKB and Ummat and several supporting parties from the province of Aceh at the northern tip of the island of Sumatra supporting Anies.
“Support for Ganjar’s ‘Alliance of Political Parties Supporting Ganjar Pranowo’ has continued to slide in January – down 5% points to 24% as fortunes have shifted. The coalition is dominated by the currently governing PDI-P (22%) and joined by the PPP, Hanura and Perindo.”
Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll “Which one of these three candidates would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”
Finding No. 9436 – This Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in January 2024 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 1,267 electors aged 17+ Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. There were 4% of electors in the Presidential poll and 4% of electors in the legislative poll couldn’t say who they support.
For further information:
| Ira Soekirman: | +62 21 5297 1562 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
