PDI-P’s Ganjar Pranowo (28%) has the edge over Prabowo Subianto (16.5%) and Anies Baswedan (15.5%) in Presidential race
The first Roy Morgan Poll on 2024 Indonesian Presidential voting intention shows Governor of Central Java province Ganjar Pranowo on 28% is clearly the leading candidate according to surveying conducted in January – March 2023 with 2,339 Indonesian electors aged 17+.
Ganjar, who is the candidate for incumbent President Joko Widodo’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is well ahead of 2019 runner-up Prabowo Subianto (16.5%) and former Governor of Jakarta, Anies Rasyid Baswedan (15.5%) – both of whom are well clear in second and third.
The three leading candidates are currently attracting the support of 60% of the electorate and are endorsed by a variety of parties represented strongly in the legislature.
The remaining 40% support is spread between over a dozen people Indonesians could vote for, who are not official candidates as yet, but who may be potential Vice-Presidential candidates including Ridwan Kamil (8%), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (5.5%), Sandiago Uno (4.5%), Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) on 3%, Mahfud MD (2.5%), Erick Thohir (2%), Puan Maharani (1.5%), Tri Rismaharini (1.5%), Andika Perkasa (1.5%), La Nyala Mattalitti (1.5%), Sri Mulyani (1%), Airlangga Hartarto (1%), Khofifah Indar Parawansa (1%), Muhaimin Iskandar (1%) and a further 4.5% with other candidates.
President Joko Widodo, who won election in 2014 and re-election five years later in 2019, is term limited and prevented from running for the position again next year.
The Indonesian general elections, including Presidential and legislative, are due to be held on February 14, 2024, with run-off elections scheduled four months later for mid-June 2024 if required.
Ganjar leads strongly in Java while Prabowo leads in Sumatra
The PDI-P’s Ganjar leads strongly on Indonesia’s most populated island of Java with 33% support, more support than for challengers Prabowo (16%) and Anies (14%) combined. Well behind are Ridwan on 8.5% and Agus on 5.5% filling out the top five.
However, on Indonesia’s second most populated island of Sumatra, home to 60 million people, it is Prabowo (22%) who leads narrowly over Ganjar (18%) and Anies (15.5%).
Legislature Voting Intention (Jan–Mar 2023): PDI-P well ahead of Demokrats and Gerindra
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows President Jokowi’s political party the PDI-P with support of 34.5% in January – March 2023, well ahead of the Demokrat party on 14.5% and Gerindra, the party of Presidential candidate Prabowo, now with 13% support in third place.
On the next level of support are Presidential candidate Ridwan Kamil’s Golkar on 9%, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) on 8.5% and the National Awakening Party (PKB) on 6.5%.
Other parties attracting 3% support or less include NasDem on 3%, the National Mandate Party (PAN) on 2%, the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) on 2%, the United Development Party (PPP) on 1.5%, the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) on 0.5% and the Crescent Start Party (PBB) on 0.5%.
Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan says there are seven months to go until Indonesians vote in Presidential and legislative elections in February 2024 and the Governor of Central Java province, Ganjar Pranowo, is in the box seat to replace Jokowi as President:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian voting intentions at next year’s Presidential and legislative elections shows President Joko Widodo’s legacy is set to continue with his party, the Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P), attracting widespread support well ahead of its rivals.
“The PDI-P’s Presidential candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, has the support of 28% of electors, and is clearly the preferred candidate on Indonesia’s largest island of Java with 33% support – more than double the support of any other candidate. Ganjar’s candidacy is being backed by his own party, the PDI-P, as well as other parties including the United Development Party (PPP), the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) and the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo).
“In second place is two-time runner-up Prabowo with the support of 16.5% of electors. Prabowo lost run-off elections to incumbent President Jokowi in 2014 and 2019 and is supported in his candidacy by his own party Gerindra as well as the National Awakening Party (PKB). Prabowo is the most popular candidate on Indonesia’s second most populated island of Sumatra with 22% support, just ahead of Ganjar on 18%.
“In third place is independent Anies Baswedan with the support of 15.5% of electors. Anies’s candidacy is backed by the party he originally former, Nasdem, as well as the Demokrats and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
“When it comes to the legislative elections, due to be held at the same time in mid-February, it is the President’s Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) with over a third of the support – 34.5%. This is more than double the support of the second-placed Demokrats (14.5%) and third-placed Gerindra on 13%.
“The results of this Roy Morgan poll conducted earlier in 2023 shows there is set to be a continuation of the current policies of President Joko Widodo with his party the PDI-P, and their preferred Presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo, enjoying large leads over their competitors in the lead-up to next year’s general election.”
Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll "I am going to show you a list of candidates for President and Vice-President. Which one would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”
Finding No. 9279 – This Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted from January – March 2023 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,339 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. Just under 10% of electors in the Presidential poll and 1.5% of electors in the legislative poll couldn’t say who they support.
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Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention
| Presidential Candidates | Dec Qtr. 2022 | Mar Qtr. 2023 |
| % | % | |
| Ganjar Pranowo | 27 | 28 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| Anies Rasyid Baswedan | 17 | 15.5 |
| Ridwan Kamil | 9 | 8 |
| Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono | 6 | 5.5 |
| Sandiago Uno | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) | 2 | 3 |
| Mahfud MD | 2 | 2.5 |
| Erick Thohir | 2 | 2 |
| Puan Maharani | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Tri Rismaharini | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Andika Perkasa | 1 | 1.5 |
| La Nyala Mattalitti | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Sri Mulyani | 1.5 | 1 |
| Airlangga Hartarto | 1 | 1 |
| Khofifah Indar Parawansa | 1 | 1 |
| Muhaimin Iskandar | 1 | 1 |
| Others | 5 | 4.5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 |
Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Province/ Island*
| By Island* | ||||||
| Presidential Candidates |
Electors | *Island of Java | *Island of Sumatra | *Island of Sulawesi | *Island of Kalimantan | Bali |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ganjar Pranowo | 28 | 33 | 18 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 33 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 16.5 | 16 | 22 | 5 | 17.5 | 20 |
| Anies Rasyid Baswedan | 15.5 | 14 | 15.5 | 45 | 16 | 1.5 |
| Ridwan Kamil | 8 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono | 5.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 8 | 2 |
| Sandiago Uno | 4.5 | 2.5 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 3.5 |
| Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) | 3 | 1 | 11.5 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Mahfud MD | 2.5 | 3 | 2.5 | – | 3 | – |
| Erick Thohir | 2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 7 | – |
| Puan Maharani | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 14.5 | * | 2.5 |
| Tri Rismaharini | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | – | 1.5 | – |
| Andika Perkasa | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | – | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| La Nyala Mattalitti | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | * | * | – |
| Sri Mulyani | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 5 |
| Airlangga Hartarto | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | – |
| Khofifah Indar Parawansa | 1 | 1.5 | * | 0.5 | 0.5 | – |
| Muhaimin Iskandar | 1 | 1 | – | * | 2.5 | – |
| Others | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 12 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*Designations: Island of Java includes the cities of Jakarta & Yogyakarta and the provinces of Banten, West Java (Jawa Barat), Central Java (Jawa Tengah) and East Java (Jawa Timur); Island of Sumatra includes Southern Sumatra (Sumatera Selatan), Lampung; Northern Sumatra (Sumatera Utara), West Sumatra (Sumatera Barat) and Riau. Island of Sulawesi includes Southern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Selatan) and Northern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Utara); Island of Kalimantan includes East Kalimantan (Kalimantan Timur), Southern Kalimantan (Kalimantan Selatan) and West Kalimantan (Kalimantan Barat).
Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention
| Political Parties | Legislative Election April 2019 | Jun Qtr. ‘21 | Sep Qtr. ‘21 | Dec Qtr. ‘21 | Mar Qtr. ‘22 | Jun Qtr. ‘22 | Sep Qtr. ‘22 | Dec Qtr. ‘22 | Mar Qtr. ‘23 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| PDI-P | 19.3 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 34.5 | 33.5 | 36 | 33 | 34.5 |
| Demokrat | 7.8 | 13.5 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 12 | 13 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 |
| Gerindra | 12.6 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | 13 |
| Golkar | 12.3 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 11 | 11 | 10.5 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| PKS | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8 | 7 | 7.5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8.5 |
| PKB | 9.7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 |
| NasDem | 9.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 3 |
| PAN | 6.8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Perindo | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| PPP | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Hanura | 1.5 | 0.5 | * | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| PBB | 0.8 | 1 | * | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | * | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Others* | 4.7 | 5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 3 | 4.5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*Other parties polled less than 0.5% of the vote each and include Garuda, PKPI, PSI, Berkarya and Others.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
