‘Real’ unemployment drops to 10.2% in September – now 2.9 million are unemployed (1.6 million) or under-employed (1.3 million)
In September ‘real’ unemployment was down 0.8% to 10.2% - an estimated 1.6 million Australians, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data.
There were however more people looking for full-time jobs (up 60,000 to 720,000) but many fewer people looking for part-time jobs (down 182,000 to 844,000) compared to a month ago. In addition, there were a further 1,329,000 Australians (down 68,000) who are now under-employed.
Overall, a massive 2.89 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed (18.9% of the workforce) in September.
The drops in part-time unemployment and underemployment came as political parties hired tens of thousands of people to campaign for ‘The Voice’ by handing out leaflets, making phone calls and manning polling booths; and the Australian Electoral Commission hired tens of thousands of people to conduct the elections and count the votes.
The September drop in ‘real’ part-time unemployment was expected as analysis of trends in Roy Morgan’s ‘real’ unemployment series in June-July 2016, April-May 2019 and April-May 2022 showed the estimated ‘real’ part-time unemployment dropped significantly in the lead-up to the past three Federal Elections.
The drop in ‘real’ unemployment in September came in the lead up to this week’s national referendum on ‘The Voice’ (latest Roy Morgan results here: ‘Yes’ – 37% cf. ‘No’ – 46% and 17% ‘Undecided’).
The September Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
- Employment increased in September driven by a rise in full-time employment:
Australian employment increased by 107,000 to 13,755,000 in September. The increase was due to a rise in full-time employment, up 167,000 to 8,963,000, although there was a slight decrease in part-time employment, which was down 60,000 to 4,792,000.
- Unemployment was down in September with significantly fewer people looking for part-time work:
In September 1,564,000 Australians were unemployed (10.2% of the workforce), a decrease of 122,000 from August. There were 844,000 (down 182,000) looking for part-time work but 720,000 (up 60,000) now looking for full-time work.
- The workforce increased by over 400,000 from a year ago to over 15.3 million people:
The workforce in September was 15,319,000 (down 15,000 from August, but up a massive 412,000 from a year ago) – comprised of 13,755,000 employed Australians (up 107,000 from a month ago) and 1,564,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 122,000).
- Overall unemployment and under-employment down 1.2% points in September to 18.9%:
In addition to the unemployed, 1.32 million Australians (8.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 68,000 from August.
In total 2.89 million Australians (18.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, down by 190,000 from August.
Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in September 2023 there were more than 700,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+3.3% points) even though overall employment (13,755,000) is almost 900,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).
ABS Comparison
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.2% is almost triple the ABS estimate of 3.7% for August but is almost identical with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in August 2023 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 568,100. This is around 50,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the six years to August 2019 (518,930) – a difference of 49,170.
If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (49,170) is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,515,000 we find a total of 1,564,170 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 10.7% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2023)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – September 2023. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says unemployment and under-employment were both down in September, but there are still 2.9 million Australians either unemployed or under-employed:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for September show 1,564,000 Australians were unemployed – equivalent to 10.2% of the workforce. There were more people looking for full-time jobs (up 60,000 to 720,000) but fewer people looking for part-time jobs (down 182,000 to 844,000) compared to a month ago.
“In addition, there are a further 1,329,000 Australians (down 68,000) who are now under-employed – 8.7% of the workforce. Looking at the overall figure shows a massive 2.89 million Australians unemployed or under-employed (18.9% of the workforce) in September is the most important problem facing the Federal Government.
“We have highlighted for months now that there’s been a rapid increase in the Australian population over the last year, a record increase of 741,000, and this has flowed through into a rapidly expanding labour market. The Australian workforce increased by 412,000 compared to September last year.
“However, although there have been new jobs created compared to a year ago, the rapid workforce growth has significantly outpaced the economy’s job creation as we deal with high inflation and rising interest rates. Overall employment is up by only 50,000 compared to a year ago while unemployment has surged by 362,000.
“In addition to the record high level of immigration the key factors influencing the Australian economy are inflation and the increases in interest rates designed to reduce it. The RBA has increased interest rates on 12 occasions since May 2022 to 4.1%.
“The good news is that the RBA appears to have finished its interest rate hiking cycle after leaving interest rates unchanged for a fourth month in a row in October– the first time they have done this since beginning their interest rate increasing cycle just over a year ago.
“However, of concern is that the latest official monthly inflation figures for the year to August 2023 show inflation at an annual rate of 5.2%, an increase of 0.3% points from July 2023 (4.9%).
“The increase in the latest annual inflation figure comes as energy prices have surged in recent months. Average retail petrol prices in Australia have now averaged above $2 per litre for eight straight weeks since mid-August – the longest ever period at this high level.
“If the increase in energy prices and the flow through to higher inflation persists this will place renewed pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates again in the months ahead. Higher interest rates will present a further challenge to an economy which is already struggling to produce enough jobs to handle the increasing levels of population over the last year.”
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 931,205 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and September 2023 and includes 6,004 telephone and online interviews in September 2023. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
