Australian unemployment drops to 9.1% in July, but under-employment increases to 9.5%; under-employment is highest for Australians aged under 25

In July unemployment dropped 1.2% to 9.1%, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data. However, there was a small increase in under-employment, up 0.2% points to 9.5%. Under-employment is clearly highest for young Australians aged 14-17 (30.6%) and 18-24 (18.2%).

Movements in under-employment are highly correlated to movements in the level of part-time employment – which increased in July and helped to drive down part-time unemployment.

• Employment increased in July with both full-time and part-time employment up on a month ago:

Australian employment was up 145,000 to 13,780,000 in July. The increase was due to a large rise in full-time employment, up 133,000 to a new record high of 9,070,000, and a small increase in part-time employment which was up 13,000 to 4,710,000.

• Unemployment (full-time and part-time workers) was down in July with fewer people looking for full-time and part-time work:

1,381,000 Australians were unemployed (9.1% of the workforce) in July, a decrease of 191,000 from June with fewer people looking for full-time work, down 15,000 to 593,000 and fewer people looking for part-time work, down a large 176,000 to 788,000.

• The workforce increased by almost 500,000 from a year ago to nearly 15.2 million people:

The workforce in July was 15,161,000 (down 45,000 from June, but up a massive 475,000 from a year ago) – comprised of 13,780,000 employed Australians (up 146,000 from a month ago) and 1,381,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 191,000).

• Overall unemployment and under-employment down 1% point in July to 18.6%:

In addition to the unemployed, 1.43 million Australians (9.5% of the workforce, up 0.2% points) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, up 19,000 from June.

In total 2.82 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, down by 172,000 from June.

Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in July 2023 there were more than 650,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+3% points) even though overall employment (13,780,000) is over 900,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.1% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.5% for June but is in line with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.9%.

The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in June 2023 (571,900) due to illness, injury or sick leave was around 137,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the five years to June 2019 (434,740) – a difference of 137,160.

If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (137,160) are added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,442,000 we find a total of 1,579,560 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed equivalent to 10.9% of the workforce.

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2023)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – July 2023. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says unemployment was down 1.2% to 9.1% in July driven by a surge in full-time and part-time jobs although under-employment increased marginally:

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 919,172 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and July 2023 and includes 7,429 telephone and online interviews in July 2023. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.

Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employed, unemployed, under-employed, employed part-time, employed full-time, retired, studying and many more.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

For further information:

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

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