New Zealand: National/Act NZ on 45% are on the verge of a majority ahead of Labour/Greens on 40% in June
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for June 2023 shows a potential right-leaning National/ Act NZ coalition has a clear lead on 45%, unchanged since May, ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 40%, down 3% points.
However, despite the clear lead for the right-leaning National/Act NZ potential partners, they are still two seats short of securing a majority of seats in the next Parliament.
Although the right-leaning parties are attracting higher support, the main Opposition Party, National, has seen its support decline in June, down 1.5% points to only 30%. This is the lowest level of support for National since Christopher Luxon became National Leader on November 30, 2021.
The decline in support for National has been a direct gain for Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to 15% in June – the highest level of support for the right-leaning libertarian party for 18 months since December 2021.
Support for the governing Labour Party was down 0.5% points to 30.5% while support for their governing partners the Greens dropped by 2.5% points to 9.5% in June – the lowest support for the party for nearly a year since August 2022.
Although the right-leaning National/ Act NZ potential coalition is in the box seat to form Government in October, they are still falling short of having enough support to win a majority in the Parliament with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.
Maori Party support surges to a record high of 7% in June – and still in the balance of power
The results for June suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party, with support surging 2.5% points to a record high of 7% in June.
Support for New Zealand First fell back in June, down 0.5% points to 3% and not enough support to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.
A further 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 1% point from a month ago, including 3% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (unchanged) who support Democracy NZ and 2% (unchanged) who support the other parties.
A potential 59 seats for a National/Act NZ coalition and 52 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 59 seats, ahead of the 52 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition – but not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.
The projected results show the Maori Party with 9 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 955 electors during June. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4%, unchanged, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 4 points to 84 in June
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 4pts to 84 in June, its highest since March. A majority of 54% (down 0.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 38% (up 2.5% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 6.3pts to 85.5 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 74.9 on June 19-25, 2023.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
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Total | Women | Men | ||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 30.5 | 36 | 26 | 46.5 | 25 | 23 | 27.5 |
| Greens | 9.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 3.5 |
| Labour/ Greens | 40 | 44 | 34.5 | 54.5 | 36 | 40 | 31 |
| National | 30 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 22 | 39.5 |
| Act NZ | 15 | 11 | 14 | 7.5 | 19.5 | 20 | 18.5 |
| National/ Act NZ | 45 | 41 | 45 | 36.5 | 49.5 | 42 | 58 |
| Maori Party | 7 | 9.5 | 15 | 3.5 | 4 | 7 | 0.5 |
| NZ First | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 |
| Others | 5 | 3 | 3.5 | 2 | 7 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | |||||||
| Right Direction | 38 | 38 | 34.5 | 41.5 | 38 | 42 | 32.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 54 | 55.5 | 60 | 50 | 53 | 47 | 60.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 84 | 82.5 | 74.5 | 91.5 | 85 | 95 | 72 |
| Can’t say | 8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Women narrowly favour Labour/Greens while men favour a potential National/Act NZ coalition
On an overall basis women narrowly favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 44% by only 3% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 41%.
Women aged 50+ favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 54.5% nearly 20% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 36.5%. However, younger women aged 18-49 prefer a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 45% over 10% points ahead of Labour/Greens on 34.5%.
When it comes to men there is a clear preference for a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 49.5% well ahead of the current Labour/Greens governing coalition on 30%.
A large majority of 58% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a third, 31%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
There is a far closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with 42% supporting a potential National/Act NZ coalition government compared to 40% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is far higher amongst men at 19.5% compared to only 11% support amongst women.
Support for the Greens is higher amongst younger men than any other gender and age group at 17%. This compares to only 3.5% of men aged 50+. In comparison, support amongst women is relatively even with 8.5% support amongst women aged 18-49 and 8% support amongst women aged 50+.
The Maori Party attracts the support of 9.5% of women including 15% support from women aged 18-49 and 3.5% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of men including 7% of men aged 18-49 and 0.5% of men aged 50+.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 72 in June
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased by 4pts to 84 in June.
Among women overall now a majority of 55.5% (up 2.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 38% (up 4.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 82.5 (up 2pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down 3.5pts to 74.5 while it was up 8pts to 91.5 for women aged 50+.
A majority of men, 53% (down 3.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 38% (up 2.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 85 (up 6pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was up 12pts to 95 while for older men aged 50+ it was down 2pts to only 72.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says with only three months to go until the election a potential National-Act NZ coalition is in the box seat to secure victory but short of a majority of seats with the Maori Party still in the box seat to decide the winner:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National-Act NZ coalition at 45% (unchanged) in June and now 5% points ahead of a potential Labour-led Government in coalition with the Greens at 40% (down 3% points).
“If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election National/Act NZ would hold 59 seats and Labour/Greens would hold 52 seats – leaving the Maori Party on a record high 7% support (and a projected 9 seats) in the box seat to determine who would form Government.
“There is a continuing gender split when it comes to the two sides with men clearly favouring a potential National-Act NZ coalition on 49.5% compared to 36% for Labour-Greens while women are narrowly in favour of a re-elected Labour-Greens governing coalition on 44% compared to the currently governing National-Act NZ on 42%.
“An interesting take-out from the results in June is the continuing slide in the vote for National – now at only 30%, down 1.5% points since May. This is the lowest vote for National since Christopher Luxon became National leader in November 2021 and the party’s share of the vote has dropped consistently since reaching a recent high of 39% in November 2022.
“The sharp fall in support for National has benefited the right-leaning libertarian Act NZ which now has support of 15%, up 4% points since November 2022. This is the highest level of support for the party since December 2021 – just after Luxon became National leader.
“The key indicators do not favour the Labour-led Government’s re-election prospects. The latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at only 84pts. A clear majority of 54% of New Zealanders say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 38% say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“In addition to low Government Confidence, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is only 85.5 in June. Although low, the latest reading does represent an increase of 6.3pts from May and is the highest reading for 18 months. If this trend from June can continue this will increase the chances of the Labour Party being competitive at this year’s election.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
