Australian unemployment jumped to 10.3% in June – the highest since January 2023 (10.7%)
In June unemployment jumped 1.9% to 10.3%, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data. However, there was a decline in under-employment in June, down 0.5% points to 9.3%.
Movements in under-employment are highly correlated to movements in the level of part-time employment – which fell in June for the first time since January.
- Employment was down in June for a second straight month, although full-time employment rose:
Australian employment was down 72,000 to 13,635,000 in June. The drop was due to a fall in part-time employment, down 167,000 to 4,697,000, while full-time employment was up 94,000 to 8,937,000.
- Unemployment (full-time and part-time workers) increased in June with more people looking for full-time and part-time work:
1,572,000 Australians were unemployed (10.3% of the workforce) in June, an increase of 314,000 from May with more people looking for full-time work, up 94,000 to 608,000 and more people looking for part-time work, up a large 220,000 to 964,000.
- The workforce increased to a new record high in June, up over 700,000 from a year ago:
The workforce in June was 15,206,000 (up 241,000 from May) – comprised of 13,635,000 employed Australians (down 72,000) and 1,572,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 314,000).
- Overall unemployment and under-employment up 1.4% points in June to 19.6%:
In addition to the unemployed, 1.42 million Australians (9.3% of the workforce, down 0.5% points) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, down 50,000 from May.
In total 2.99 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May, up by 264,000 from May.
Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in June 2023 there were more than 800,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+4% points) even though overall employment (13,634,000) is almost 800,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.3% is almost triple the ABS estimate of 3.6% for May and is closer to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in May 2023 (595,900) due to illness, injury or sick leave was around 135,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the five years to May 2019 (460,710) – a difference of 135,190.
If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (135,190) are added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,453,000 we find a total of 1,588,190 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed equivalent to 10.9% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2023)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – June 2023. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says unemployment jumped 1.9% to 10.3% in June as a significant fall in part-time employment and more people joining the workforce led to the first increase in the unemployment rate since January:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for June show unemployment increasing rapidly, up 314,000 to 1,572,000 (10.3%, up 1.9%). There were far more people looking for both full-time jobs (up 94,000 to 608,000) and part-time jobs (up 220,000 to 964,000) in June.
“There are a further 1,415,000 Australians now under-employed – 9.3% of the workforce. Overall unemployment and under-employment in June is 2.99 million (19.6% of the workforce) – just below the recent peak above 3 million (20.2%) reached earlier this year in January.
“We have highlighted for months now that there’s been a rapid increase in the Australian workforce over the past year. This trend has continued in June with the workforce increasing by a massive 715,000 compared to a year ago – the second biggest increase on record.
“Although there have been new jobs created compared to a year ago, the workforce growth has outpaced the economy’s job creation as we deal with high inflation and rising interest rates. Overall employment is up 268,000 compared to a year ago while unemployment has increased by 447,000.
“In addition to the surge in immigration the key factor influencing the Australian economy at the moment is inflation and the increases in interest rates designed to reduce it. The RBA has increased interest rates on 12 occasions since May 2022 to 4.1% – the highest interest rates since May 2012 – and many economists are predicting further interest rate increases to come as soon as next week.
“The latest ABS monthly inflation figures for May 2023 show inflation is still present in the Australian economy – with prices rising 5.6% from a year ago. Despite this representing a decline from a month earlier this is still far higher than the RBA’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the cycle. This is likely to keep pressure on the RBA to continue to increase interest rates.
“A big factor set to influence the Australian employment market over the next few months will be the Fair Work Commission’s (FWC) decision to increase the minimum wage from July 1. The FWC increased the minimum wage by 8.6 per cent to $883 per week while over 2.5 million workers on an award rate will receive a wage increase of 5.75 per cent.
“The increase to the award wage impacts over a fifth of Australian workers while less than 1% of workers are on the minimum wage. The increase to the award wage will be a challenge for those employers most impacted by rising inflation and interest rates and is slightly higher than the latest ABS CPI figure of 5.6% in the year to April 2023.
“The Australian economy is finely balanced at the moment with a surge in employment accompanied by high inflation, and interest rates still rising as they work their way through the economy. Looking forward Australians will be hoping the Federal Government and the RBA are able to ensure the economy continues to grow despite these pressures having an increasing impact on many.”
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates
| Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’* |
Unemployed | Unemployed looking for | ‘Under-employed’* | |||||
| Full-time | Part-time | |||||||
| 2022 | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | ‘000 | ‘000 | % |
| Jan-Mar 2022 | 2,380 | 16.4 | 1,187 | 8.2 | 438 | 749 | 1,193 | 8.2 |
| Apr-Jun 2022 | 2,467 | 17.0 | 1,235 | 8.5 | 482 | 753 | 1,232 | 8.5 |
| Jul-Sep 2022 | 2,657 | 17.9 | 1,270 | 8.6 | 540 | 730 | 1,387 | 9.3 |
| Oct-Dec 2022 | 2,792 | 19.4 | 1,361 | 9.2 | 542 | 819 | 1,431 | 9.6 |
| 2023 | ||||||||
| Jan-Mar 2023 | 2,883 | 19.2 | 1,513 | 10.1 | 595 | 918 | 1,371 | 9.1 |
| Apr-Jun 2023 | 2,779 | 18.4 | 1,372 | 9.1 | 547 | 825 | 1,407 | 9.3 |
| Months | ||||||||
| May 2022 | 2,408 | 16.7 | 1,169 | 8.1 | 477 | 692 | 1,239 | 8.6 |
| June 2022 | 2,351 | 16.3 | 1,125 | 7.8 | 409 | 716 | 1,226 | 8.5 |
| July 2022 | 2,516 | 17.1 | 1,246 | 8.5 | 494 | 752 | 1,270 | 8.6 |
| August 2022 | 2,692 | 18.1 | 1,363 | 9.2 | 592 | 771 | 1,329 | 8.9 |
| September 2022 | 2,764 | 18.6 | 1,202 | 8.1 | 535 | 667 | 1,562 | 10.5 |
| October 2022 | 2,916 | 19.7 | 1,362 | 9.2 | 525 | 837 | 1,554 | 10.5 |
| November 2022 | 2,715 | 18.2 | 1,338 | 9.0 | 506 | 832 | 1,377 | 9.2 |
| December 2022 | 2,745 | 18.4 | 1,384 | 9.3 | 595 | 789 | 1,361 | 9.1 |
| January 2023 | 3,033 | 20.2 | 1,607 | 10.7 | 644 | 963 | 1,426 | 9.5 |
| February 2023 | 2,888 | 19.2 | 1,521 | 10.1 | 602 | 919 | 1,367 | 9.1 |
| March 2023 | 2,729 | 18.2 | 1,410 | 9.4 | 539 | 871 | 1,319 | 8.8 |
| April 2023 | 2,626 | 17.4 | 1,286 | 8.5 | 520 | 766 | 1,340 | 8.9 |
| May 2023 | 2,723 | 18.2 | 1,258 | 8.4 | 514 | 744 | 1,465 | 9.8 |
| June 2023 | 2,987 | 19.6 | 1,572 | 10.3 | 608 | 964 | 1,415 | 9.3 |
*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 911,743 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and June 2023 and includes 5,955 telephone and online interviews in June 2023. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employed, unemployed, under-employed, employed part-time, employed full-time, retired, studying and many more.
For further information:
| Contact | Office | Mobile |
| Gary Morgan: | +61 3 9224 5213 | +61 411 129 094 |
| Michele Levine: | +61 3 9224 5215 | +61 411 129 093 |
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – June 2023. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – June 2023. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – June 2023. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
