Australian full-time employment in March hit a record high of 9 million as unemployment fell 0.7% to 9.4%
In March unemployment dropped 0.7% points to 9.4%, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data. Unemployment dropped due to the 57,000 new jobs created in the month with both full-time and part-time work increasing for the second straight month.
Unemployment in March dropped 111,000 to 1.41 million Australians (9.4% of the workforce) and under-employment was down 48,000 to 1.32 million (8.8% of the workforce). Overall unemployment and under-employment dropped by 159,000 to 2.73 million (18.8% of the workforce).
- Employment was up in March as full-time employment increased to a new record high:
Australian employment increased by 57,000 to 13,574,000 in March. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 41,000 to a new record high of 8,990,000 while part-time employment also increased, up 16,000 to 4,584,000.
- Unemployment dropped in March with fewer people looking for full-time and part-time work:
1,410,000 Australians were unemployed (9.4% of the workforce) in March, a decrease of 111,000 from February with fewer people looking for full-time work, down 63,000 to 539,000 and fewer people looking for part-time work, down 48,000 to 871,000.
- The workforce was down slightly from the record high above 15 million reached in February:
The workforce in March was 14,984,000 (down 54,000 from February) – comprised of 13,574,000 employed Australians (up 57,000) and 1,410,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 111,000).
- Overall unemployment and under-employment drops 1% point in March to 18.2%:
In addition to the unemployed, 1.32 million Australians (8.8% of the workforce, down 0.3% points) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, down 48,000 from February.
In total 2.73 million Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, down by 159,000 from February. The movements in February and March reversed the spike higher during January when combined unemployment and under-employment increased by 288,000.
Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in March 2023 there were more than 550,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+2.6% points) even though overall employment (13,574,000) is over 700,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.4% is almost 6% points higher than the ABS estimate of 3.5% for February and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.3%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in February 2023 (419,300) was less than the comparable figure for the pre-pandemic month of February 2020 (430,800) and shows that the latest variant of COVID-19 is no longer having an out-sized impact on trends within the Australian labour force.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2023)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – March 2023. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says unemployment and under-employment were both down for the second straight month (down by a total of 304,000); but have yet to fully reverse the rapid increase of 318,000 seen in the summer months of December-January:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for March show unemployment down 111,000 to 1,410,000 (9.4%, down 0.7% points). The decline in unemployment is good news but the measure is still significantly higher than a year ago – well over 250,000 more Australians are now unemployed than in March 2022 – 1,133,000 (7.8% of the workforce).
“Under-employment in March was 1,319,000 (8.8% of the workforce), down 48,000 on February, but almost 100,000 higher than a year ago in March 2022 – 1,223,000 (8.4% of the workforce). These figures show that although there was again positive movement in the underlying figures in March, the longer-term trends show considerably higher unemployment and under-employment than a year ago.
“The big trend impacting the Australian labour force at present is the increased immigration since the COVID-19 pandemic barriers came down which has led to far faster population growth than during the pandemic years of 2020-22 and is boosting figures across the workforce.
“Compared to a year ago the workforce has grown rapidly and is up 461,000 to 14,984,000 driven by both an increase in jobs, up 184,000 to 13,574,000, and an even larger increase in unemployment, up 277,000 to 1,410,000. Although the labour force has been growing rapidly over the last year there have not been enough jobs created to deal with the influx of new labour in such a short period of time.
“The biggest impact has occurred during the last six months as inward immigration to Australia has increased substantially and almost all COVID-19 pandemic related restrictions ended in late 2022. Since October 14, 2022, there has been no mandatory isolation for anyone with COVID-19 and no ‘Pandemic Leave Disaster Payments’ available to those forced into mandatory isolation.
“The impact of COVID-19 on the workforce has also rapidly diminished in recent months and in February there were even fewer people taking extended time off work due to illness, injury or sick leave than in February 2020 prior to the pandemic.
“Over the last six months (October 2022 – March 2023), total unemployment and under-employment has averaged 2.84 million (19.2% of the workforce), nearly 300,000 people higher than the figure for the six months before that of April – September 2022: 2.56 million (17.5% of the workforce).
“Roy Morgan’s estimated unemployment during the last six months has averaged 9.6% – which matches the rate in the pre-pandemic period during the first six months of 2019. In contrast, ABS unemployment over the last six months has averaged 3.5% – down significantly on the average of 5.1% in the first six months of 2019.
“Some might question what is driving this divergence and we put that down to the different ways the two surveys are conducted. Roy Morgan’s monthly unemployment survey is conducted with a fresh representative sample of 4,000 – 5,000 Australians aged 14+ each month.
“The Roy Morgan methodology does mean our estimates are more likely to move significantly from month-to-month as they capture what is happening on the ground for a representative sample of different Australians and can capture new changes in the economy – such as record high immigration and the ending of COVID-19 restrictions.
“In contrast, the ABS employment series methodology involves selecting households for the ABS Survey who are then interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
“The ABS methodology produces a great deal of stability in results from month-to-month but also means sudden changes in the employment market can take many months to filter through into the final figures released. We believe we are seeing an element of this process play out during the last few months as the ABS has missed the large influx of new immigrants into Australia in their latest figures.
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show that although the economy is creating many new jobs, the large increase in the workforce due to factors such as increased immigration, and the relaxation of domestic COVID-19 restrictions, means there has been a clear increase in both unemployment and under-employment since late last year.
“Treasurer Jim Chalmer’s will next month hand down his first Federal Budget and dealing with the closely related issues of inflation, interest rates and unemployment must be at the core of the economic plan. The Albanese Government needs to present a coherent plan that provides certainty and confidence to the Australian people as we deal with the high inflation and rising interest rates that are raising costs for businesses and consumers alike.”
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates
| Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’* |
Unemployed | Unemployed looking for | ‘Under-employed’* | |||||
| Full-time | Part-time | |||||||
| 2022 | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | ‘000 | ‘000 | % |
| Jan-Mar 2022 | 2,380 | 16.4 | 1,187 | 8.2 | 438 | 749 | 1,193 | 8.2 |
| Apr-Jun 2022 | 2,467 | 17.0 | 1,235 | 8.5 | 482 | 753 | 1,232 | 8.5 |
| Jul-Sep 2022 | 2,657 | 17.9 | 1,270 | 8.6 | 540 | 730 | 1,387 | 9.3 |
| Oct-Dec 2022 | 2,792 | 19.4 | 1,361 | 9.2 | 542 | 819 | 1,431 | 9.6 |
| 2023 | ||||||||
| Jan-Mar 2023 | 2,883 | 19.2 | 1,513 | 10.1 | 595 | 918 | 1,371 | 9.1 |
| Months | ||||||||
| February 2022 | 2,357 | 16.3 | 1,227 | 8.5 | 463 | 764 | 1,130 | 7.8 |
| March 2022 | 2,356 | 16.2 | 1,133 | 7.8 | 387 | 746 | 1,223 | 8.4 |
| April 2022 | 2,641 | 18.1 | 1,411 | 9.7 | 559 | 852 | 1,230 | 8.4 |
| May 2022 | 2,408 | 16.7 | 1,169 | 8.1 | 477 | 692 | 1,239 | 8.6 |
| June 2022 | 2,351 | 16.3 | 1,125 | 7.8 | 409 | 716 | 1,226 | 8.5 |
| July 2022 | 2,516 | 17.1 | 1,246 | 8.5 | 494 | 752 | 1,270 | 8.6 |
| August 2022 | 2,692 | 18.1 | 1,363 | 9.2 | 592 | 771 | 1,329 | 8.9 |
| September 2022 | 2,764 | 18.6 | 1,202 | 8.1 | 535 | 667 | 1,562 | 10.5 |
| October 2022 | 2,916 | 19.7 | 1,362 | 9.2 | 525 | 837 | 1,554 | 10.5 |
| November 2022 | 2,715 | 18.2 | 1,338 | 9.0 | 506 | 832 | 1,377 | 9.2 |
| December 2022 | 2,745 | 18.4 | 1,384 | 9.3 | 595 | 789 | 1,361 | 9.1 |
| January 2023 | 3,033 | 20.2 | 1,607 | 10.7 | 644 | 963 | 1,426 | 9.5 |
| February 2023 | 2,888 | 19.2 | 1,521 | 10.1 | 602 | 919 | 1,367 | 9.1 |
| March 2023 | 2,729 | 18.2 | 1,410 | 9.4 | 539 | 871 | 1,319 | 8.8 |
*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 892,385 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and March 2023 and includes 5,975 telephone and online interviews in March 2023. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employed, unemployed, under-employed, employed part-time, employed full-time, retired, studying and many more.
For further information:
| Contact | Office | Mobile |
| Gary Morgan: | +61 3 9224 5213 | +61 411 129 094 |
| Michele Levine: | +61 3 9224 5215 | +61 411 129 093 |
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – March 2023. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – March 2023. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – March 2023. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
