Australian unemployment increased to 9.3% in December in line with the usual seasonal trends for this time of the year
In December unemployment increased 0.3% points to 9.3%, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data. The increase in unemployment was in line with the usual seasonal trends seen at this time of the year as school leavers and university students joined the workforce but couldn’t all find the jobs they were looking for.
Unemployment in December increased 46,000 to 1.38 million Australians (9.3% of the workforce) although under-employment was down slightly, by 16,000 to 1.36 million (9.1% of the workforce). Overall unemployment and under-employment was up 30,000 to 2.74 million (18.4% of the workforce).
- Employment decreased slightly in December driven by a decrease in full-time employment:
Australian employment decreased by 12,000 to 13,568,000 in December. The decrease was driven by a drop in full-time employment, down 97,000 to 8,771,000, although part-time employment increased in line with the usual seasonal trends, up by 85,000 to 4,797,000.
- Unemployment was up in December as more people looked for full-time work:
1,384,000 Australians were unemployed (9.3% of the workforce) in December, an increase of 46,000 from November with more people looking for full-time work, up 89,000 to 595,000 although there were fewer people looking for part-time work, down 43,000 to 789,000.
- The workforce increased in December to a record high as people joined the workforce:
The workforce in December was 14,952,000 (up 34,000 from November) – comprised of 13,568,000 employed Australians (down 12,000) and 1,384,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 46,000).
- Under-employment dropped in December to 1.36 million – lowest since August 2022:
In addition to the unemployed, 1.36 million Australians (9.1% of the workforce, down 0.1% points) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, down 16,000 from November.
In total 2.74 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 30,000 on November.
Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in December 2022 there were more than 550,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+2.8% points) even though overall employment (13,568,000) is almost 700,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).
Roy Morgan’s under-employment figure of 9.1% is over 3% points higher than the ABS estimate of 5.8% for November. However, the ABS figures for November show there were 520,600 workers who worked fewer hours than usual due to illness, personal injury or sick leave compared to an average of 414,300 for the month of November over the five years from November 2017 – November 2021.
This difference in the numbers of people who worked fewer hours due to illness, personal injury or sick leave, which can be put down to the Omicron variant of COVID-19 equates to a difference of 106,300 in November 2022 above the average for the month of November for the previous five years. If these workers are added to the approximately 827,000 workers, the ABS classifies as under-employed this creates a total of 933,300 – equivalent to 6.5% of the workforce.
When the ABS unemployed (3.4% of the workforce, 491,700 workers) and this larger than usual level of under-employed (6.5% of the workforce, approximately 933,300 workers) are combined these figures add to 1.42 million workers, around 10.0% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – December 2022. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says seasonal factors usually lead to a rise in unemployment in December as school leavers enter the workforce and this consistent trend continued in 2022 with the increase in line with the average increase over the last decade of just under 50,000:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for December show unemployment increasing by 46,000 to 1,384,000 (9.3%, up 0.3% points) – the highest level of unemployment since April 2022.
“This level of increase is to be expected in December as school leavers and university students enter the workforce after the completion of their exams. Over the last decade (2013-2022) there has been an average increase of unemployment of 47,000 in December – right in line with this year’s figures.
“The usual seasonal trends in the employment market were also seen with part-time employment increasing at the expense of full-time employment as people took on casual jobs in the retail and hospitality sectors and spent time on holidays.
“Full-time employment was down 97,000 to 8,771,000 in December, in line with the average drop in full-time employment over the last decade (2013-2022) of 102,000. However, the increase in part-time employment of 85,000 to 4,797,000 was weaker than the average over the last decade of 146,000.
“This weaker than usual increase in part-time employment meant overall employment was down slightly, by 12,000 to 13,568,000 whereas an increase in line with the average of the last decade would have led to a small increase.
“All-in-all seasonal factors were the main drivers of the employment market in December as Australians enjoyed a ‘COVID-restriction free Christmas’ for the first time in three years and retail spending in the pre-Christmas period set to hit a new record high – forecast by Roy Morgan and the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) at over $66 billion.
“Looking forward the consumer economy is expected to remain strong with Roy Morgan and the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) forecasting post-Christmas spending to hit a record high of $23.5 billion, up 7.9% on a year ago.
“Although the Australian economy has weathered the challenges of high inflation and energy prices and rising interest rates during 2022 we expect these forces will start to impact the economy throughout 2023 as the fixed rate mortgages many Australians took out during the pandemic reset to far higher rates and inflationary pressures continue to build on businesses and workers alike.
“Australia out-performed most of the world during the pandemic years of 2020-2022 and is well-placed to continue that out-performance next year but there remains much uncertainty around the global economic picture during the course of 2023.”
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates
| Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’* |
Unemployed | Unemployed looking for | ‘Under-employed’* | |||||
| Full-time | Part-time | |||||||
| 2022 | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | ‘000 | ‘000 | % |
| Jan-Mar 2022 | 2,380 | 16.4 | 1,187 | 8.2 | 438 | 749 | 1,193 | 8.2 |
| Apr-Jun 2022 | 2,467 | 17.0 | 1,235 | 8.5 | 482 | 753 | 1,232 | 8.5 |
| Jul-Sep 2022 | 2,657 | 17.9 | 1,270 | 8.6 | 540 | 730 | 1,387 | 9.3 |
| Months | ||||||||
| November 2021 | 2,536 | 17.5 | 1,330 | 9.2 | 583 | 748 | 1,206 | 8.3 |
| December 2021 | 2,676 | 18.2 | 1,252 | 8.5 | 557 | 695 | 1,424 | 9.7 |
| January 2022 | 2,427 | 16.6 | 1,201 | 8.2 | 464 | 737 | 1,226 | 8.4 |
| February 2022 | 2,357 | 16.3 | 1,227 | 8.5 | 463 | 764 | 1,130 | 7.8 |
| March 2022 | 2,356 | 16.2 | 1,133 | 7.8 | 387 | 746 | 1,223 | 8.4 |
| April 2022 | 2,641 | 18.1 | 1,411 | 9.7 | 559 | 852 | 1,230 | 8.4 |
| May 2022 | 2,408 | 16.7 | 1,169 | 8.1 | 477 | 692 | 1,239 | 8.6 |
| June 2022 | 2,351 | 16.3 | 1,125 | 7.8 | 409 | 716 | 1,226 | 8.5 |
| July 2022 | 2,516 | 17.1 | 1,246 | 8.5 | 494 | 752 | 1,270 | 8.6 |
| August 2022 | 2,692 | 18.1 | 1,363 | 9.2 | 592 | 771 | 1,329 | 8.9 |
| September 2022 | 2,764 | 18.6 | 1,202 | 8.1 | 535 | 667 | 1,562 | 10.5 |
| October 2022 | 2,916 | 19.7 | 1,362 | 9.2 | 525 | 837 | 1,554 | 10.5 |
| November 2022 | 2,715 | 18.2 | 1,338 | 9.0 | 506 | 832 | 1,377 | 9.2 |
| December 2022 | 2,745 | 18.4 | 1,384 | 9.3 | 595 | 789 | 1,361 | 9.1 |
*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 876,456 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and December 2022 and includes 4,477 telephone and online interviews in December 2022. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employed, unemployed, under-employed, employed part-time, employed full-time, retired, studying and many more.
For further information:
| Contact | Office | Mobile |
| Gary Morgan: | +61 3 9224 5213 | +61 411 129 094 |
| Michele Levine: | +61 3 9224 5215 | +61 411 129 093 |
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – December 2022. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – December 2022. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – December 2022. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
