NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP increases in mid-March: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%
A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 53.5% (up 1% point since late February) ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 46.5% (down 1% point) in mid-March only weeks out from the State Election.
This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention was conducted via SMS with 1,013 New South Wales electors aged 18+ from March 10-14, 2023.
Opposition Leader Chris Minns is preferred over Premier Dominic Perrottet
Labor leader Chris Minns has retained his lead as the ‘Better Premier’ on 52% (down 2% points since late February) over the Liberal Party leader, and incumbent, Dominic Perrottet on 48% (up 2% points) although the gap has closed slightly in recent weeks.
Premier Dominic Perrottet splits opinion almost down the middle when it comes to his job performance with 51% (up 4% points since late February) now disapproving of the job he is doing as Premier compared to 49% (down 4% points) approving.
Roy Morgan’s ‘Trust and Distrust in New South Wales Politics Webinar’ now live
To dig deeper into what’s driving voters in New South Wales, what issues are at the forefront of their minds and how they really feel about the two leaders – Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns – Roy Morgan has just released a special comprehensive and compact webinar on the contest.
The ’Trust and Distrust in New South Wales Politics Webinar’ is available now and is essential viewing for anyone looking for a deeper insight into what is set to happen in New South Wales as the state goes to the polls this weekend.
Primary voting intention shows the ALP and Coalition both on 34% and other parties on 32%
The two major parties are locked on 34% support each in mid-March with a sizeable share of voters supporting a minor party or independent candidate. The ALP is on 34%, up 0.5% points since late February, now level with the Liberal-National Coalition on 34%, up 1.5% points.
Nearly a third of electors, 32%, down 2% points, say they will vote for a minor party or independent candidate. The most popular minor party is the Greens on 13%, up 2% points.
Support for One Nation is heavily influenced by how many seats the party is standing in – only 17 out of 93 seats – just under 20%. Given that One Nation will not be on the lower house ballot for most voters their likely support at the election is measured at only 2% now that candidates have been announced.
Nearly a fifth of voters (17%), have indicated they are supporting other minor parties such as the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice Party, Legalise Cannabis Party and independents – including several ‘Teal independents’ in wealthy areas of Sydney.
Many of these minor parties are set to perform well in the upper house at the upcoming election although it is obviously much harder to win seats in the lower house.
Not since the 2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South Wales State Election.
Biggest issues for NSW electors are ‘Cost of living’ followed by ‘improving health services & hospitals’
As part of this special Roy Morgan SMS Poll electors were asked ‘What is the biggest issue on your mind approaching this month’s NSW State Election?’ and the cost of living emerged as clearly the largest issue with 25% of electors mentioned ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ unprompted.
The second most prominent issue to emerge was ‘Improving health services and hospitals’ mentioned by 10% just ahead of the ‘Environment/ Climate change’ mentioned by 8% and ‘Housing crisis/ affordability’ also cited by 8% of electors.
Other issues to be brought up by many electors included ‘Improving education’ (6%) and ‘Improving wages and conditions’ (4%).
Top six issues mentioned by NSW electors as the ‘Biggest issue’ approaching the NSW Election
Base: NSW electors aged 18+. Total answered question: n=844. Source: Roy Morgan SMS Poll on NSW Voting Intention, March 10-14, 2023.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the New South Wales election is set to be a tight contest this Saturday but Labor are favoured to be in the box seat to form Government if they fall short of a majority in the 93-seat lower house of Parliament:
“This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of NSW voting intention conducted in mid-March shows the ALP on 53.5% (up 1% point since late February) clearly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 46.5% (down 1% point) just over a week before the election.
“The two-party preferred result represents a large swing of 5.5% points towards the Labor Opposition although even a uniform swing of that level won’t be enough for the party to govern in its own right with 47 seats in the 93-seat lower house.
“There are several Liberal held seats on margins of 5.5-7.5% that are set to be key to determining whether Labor can govern in its own right. These seats will be hard to capture for the Opposition which currently holds only 35 seats in the Parliament – well short of the 47 required.
“The key issues identified by voters in last week’s Roy Morgan Poll are led by ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ mentioned by a quarter of voters – more than double any other issue. The 32-year high inflation and the sharply rising interest rates over the last year are clearly hitting many people in New South Wales in the hip pocket.
“Other important issues at the top of mind include ‘Improving health services & hospitals’ mentioned by 10%, and the ‘Environment/ Climate change’ and ‘Housing crisis/ affordability’ both mentioned by 8% of electors.
“Apart from ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ the supporters of the two major parties have very different views on what the major issues in the election are and this divergence will be key to determining the final election result.
“The incumbent Liberal-National Government led by Premier Dominic Perrottet is the only remaining Liberal-led Government on the Australian mainland and counting against their chances of re-election is that they’re much more distrusted than Chris Minn’s Labor Opposition. As we saw last year, high levels of Distrust played a pivotal role in Scott Morrison’s downfall only 10 months ago.
“To dig deeper into what’s driving voters in New South Wales, what issues are at the forefront of their minds and how they really feel about the two leaders – Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns – Roy Morgan has just released a special comprehensive and compact webinar on the contest.
“The ’Trust and Distrust in New South Wales Politics Webinar’ is available now and is essential viewing for anyone looking for a deeper insight into what is set to happen in New South Wales as the state goes to the polls this weekend.
“Click this link to view the special New South Wales Election webinar.”
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann (03) 9224 5368 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Question 1:
“If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"
New South Wales Primary Voting Intention – Trends.
| New South Wales Electors 18+ | |||||||
| PRIMARY | 2019 NSW Election |
October 2022* |
November 2022* |
December 2022* |
January 2023* | Feb. 24-28, 2023 |
Mar. 10-14, 2023 |
| VOTE | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| L-NP | 41.6 | 32 | 37 | 33.5 | 35 | 32.5 | 34 |
| ALP | 33.3 | 36.5 | 35 | 33.5 | 32.5 | 33.5 | 34 |
| Total Others | 25.1 | 31.5 | 28 | 33 | 32.5 | 34 | 32 |
| Greens | 9.6 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 12 | 9.5 | 11 | 13 |
| One Nation | 1.1 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 2 |
| Other Parties & Independents | 14.4 | 16.5 | 11.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 17 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*Roy Morgan multi-mode polls conducted in the months of October 2022, November 2022, December 2022 & January 2023 with a representative cross-section of New South Wales electors aged 18+. Roy Morgan Special SMS Polls were conducted from February 24-28, 2023, and March 10-14, 2023.
New South Wales Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.
| New South Wales Electors 18+ | ||||||||
| 2019 NSW Election |
October 2022* |
November 2022* |
December 2022* |
January 2023* |
Feb. 24-28, 2023 |
Mar. 10-14, 2023 | ||
| 2PP | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| L-NP | 52 | 43 | 48 | 45 | 48 | 47.5 | 46.5 | |
| ALP | 48 | 57 | 52 | 55 | 52 | 52.5 | 53.5 | |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
*Roy Morgan multi-mode polls conducted in the months of October 2022, November 2022, December 2022 & January 2023 with a representative cross-section of New South Wales electors aged 18+. Roy Morgan Special SMS Polls were conducted from February 24-28, 2023, and March 10-14, 2023.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
