ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops to lowest since early April 2020 at only 78.1 after RBA increases interest rates to decade high
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 5.5pts to 78.1 this week after the RBA increased official interest rates to the highest rate since October 2012, up +0.25% to 3.35%. This was the largest weekly drop in Consumer Confidence following an RBA meeting since a drop of 6.6pts after the RBA increased interest rates by +0.5% in early June.
Consumer Confidence is now a large 25.1pts below the same week a year ago, February 7-13, 2022 (103.2). Consumer Confidence is now 6.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 84.9.
Driving this week’s decline in Consumer Confidence was increasing concern about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year, a comparison of personal finances compared to a year ago and whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ major household items.
Consumer Confidence was down in all five mainland States this week and under 80 in all of them except Western Australia.
Current financial conditions
- Now 19% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly three years since April 2020) compared to 49% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 31% (down 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while just over a third, 35% (up 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 7% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over two-fifths, 41% (up 8ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is still very weak with only 13% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 18% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now 17% (down 6ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly three years since early April 2020) while over half, 54% (up 5ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly three years since early April 2020).
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:
Consumer confidence fell after the RBA raised interest rates by 25bp. This was the sharpest weekly drop in confidence since the June 2022 RBA meeting, which delivered the first 50bp cash rate hike of the current interest rate cycle. The average confidence among people paying off their mortgages fell sharper than other housing cohorts last week, by 10pts to its lowest since early April 2020. Confidence among homeowners and renters also fell, by 5.2pts and 2.9pts respectively. The subindex for whether ‘it is a good time’ to buy a major household item dropped to its lowest since April 2020.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
