ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 85.9, first fall in the index of the New Year
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1.8pts to 85.9 this week, the first fall in the index so far this year. Consumer Confidence is now a large 14.2pts below the same week a year ago, January 17-23, 2022 (100.1). Consumer Confidence is now 2.8pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7.
Driving this week’s fall in Consumer Confidence was a softening in sentiment related to personal financial situations with more Australians expecting to be ‘worse off’ financially this time next year and more Australians saying they are now ‘worse off’ financially than this time a year ago.
Consumer Confidence was down slightly in most parts of Australia including New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland, but was up in South Australia.
Current financial conditions
- Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 45% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, over a third of Australians, 34% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while just under a third, 31% (up 2ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to slightly fewer than a third, 30% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since late May 2022 – the week after the election of the Albanese Government).
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is still very weak with only 14% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19% (up 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now under a quarter, 23% (down 3ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 47% (up 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:
Consumer confidence softened by 1.8pts to 85.9 last week, representing the first drop in confidence in 2023 so far. Consumer confidence regarding current and future finances fell a little, though future financial conditions are still in positive territory. Sentiment about current economic conditions improved but consumers’ five-year view outlook on the economy softened. Household inflation expectations rose 0.3ppt to 5.7% but remained below the inflation expectations of late 2022. Media coverage of the inflation data and the first RBA meeting of 2023, which we expect to result in a cash rate hike, could both be headwinds for confidence in coming weeks.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
