ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.5 in the week before Christmas
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.5 this week and has now spent the last four weeks before Christmas in a tight band between 82.5 to 83.1. However, Consumer Confidence is a large 25.9pts below the same week a year ago, December 18/19, 2021 (108.4). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 6.2pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7.
Although Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged this week the measure was up slightly in New South Wales and Victoria but down in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.
There was very little movement across the index this week with a slight improvement in sentiment regarding the Australian economy over the five years more than offset by growing worries about the performance of the economy over the short-term of the next year.
Current financial conditions
- Now 23% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 46% (up 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians, 30% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 33% (unchanged), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to slightly more than a third, 35% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is still very weak with only 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 18% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now only 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while nearly half of Australians, 48% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch, commented:
Consumer confidence declined by 0.4pts last week to 82.5, ending 2022 almost 30pts below the long-term average. Over the past four weeks, confidence has steadied within a narrow range in the low-80s. Last week’s decline was largely driven by a 3.5pt drop in the ‘economic conditions next year’ subindex. The persistent weakness in sentiment now appears to be weighing on household spending. ANZ-observed data suggest spending lost momentum early in the holiday season, which could signal the beginning of a cyclical slowdown. In 2023, we’ll be watching how confidence responds to the combination of falling inflation and rising nominal wage growth. It’s possible we’ll see a sustained improvement, even under the burden of higher rates.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
