ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.9 despite eighth straight interest rate increase
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.9 this week and is now a large 25.1pts below the same week a year ago, December 11/12, 2021 (108.0). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 5.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.8.
Although Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged this week the measure was up slightly in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia but down in Victoria and Queensland.
Across the index the two questions that look at the next year improved slightly this week whereas the question relating to whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ deteriorated in a worrying development for retailers as we enter the last two weeks of the pre-Christmas retailing period.
Current financial conditions
- Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 45% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians, 30% (up 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 33% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 8% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to a third, 33% (down 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is still very weak with only 11% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now only 23% (down 3ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while nearly half of Australians, 49% (up 4ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch, commented:
Consumer confidence increased marginally last week despite the RBA raising the cash rate 25bp on Tuesday. This was the first time in the current tightening cycle that confidence has improved after an increase in the policy rate, perhaps a sign that households expect a pause soon. While confidence dropped 1.3pts for households paying off their mortgage, to be below 80 for the ninth straight week, confidence lifted for homeowners (+1.9pts) and renters (+0.2pts). We’ll be watching the December spending data carefully for signs of a slowdown following the 6.8pt drop in the “time to buy a major household item” index to a four-week low.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
