Roy Morgan Update September 24, 2024: ALP Support unchanged, Consumer Confidence & AFL Supporter Ladder 2024

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & AFL Supporter Ladder 2024.

There was again little change on the two-party preferred result this week with the latest Roy Morgan survey showing the ALP on 50.5% just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP has effectively held this narrow margin for four straight weeks now.

The ALP’s narrow two-party preferred advantage is drawn by higher support amongst women.

Women support the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% - a difference of 7% points.

In comparison, men favour the L-NP by a narrower margin of 4% points: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.”

However, if a Federal Election were held now, the result would be ‘too close to call’ and either major party, the ALP or Coalition, would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government.

Despite not gaining on a two-party preferred basis, ALP primary support did increase – up 1.5% to 32% - which is still less than the party received at the last Federal Election. The Coalition was unchanged at 37.5%.

ALP support increased at the expense of the One Nation (down 0.5% to 5%), the Independents (down 0.5% to 9.5%) and Other Parties (down 0.5% to 3.5%).

Support for the Greens was unchanged at 12.5%.

There was better news for the government on other key indicators.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) increased 6 points to 80 – the highest level for this indicator since July.

However, it is still well below the neutral level of 100.

A majority (52.5%) of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction, while only 32.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 0.8 points to 84.9 – its highest level for over 18 months since January 2023.

Consumer Confidence is now on the verge of breaking above the level of 85 for the first time since early last year – an important sign that Australians are growing more confident about the Australian economy and the state of their personal finances.

The increase to Consumer Confidence came before the Reserve Bank’s decision today to leave interest rates unchanged which should provide a further boost to Consumer Confidence this week.

This week Inflation Expectations were up 0.1%. So, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations indicator shows Australians expect annual inflation to be 4.9% per annum over the next two years.

However, the four-week moving average remains at 4.7%, the equal lowest it has been since October 2021.

And now to the latest figures on mortgage stress. Roy Morgan is the only company to measure ‘mortgage stress’ every month.

The latest ‘mortgage stress’ figures show mortgage stress has eased and is now below 30% - 29.5% of all Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress, down 0.3% points on a month ago, and down almost 2% in six months.

The decline in mortgage stress is primarily due to rising household incomes particularly since the tax cut, which along with the extended pause in interest rate increases since late last year, has reduced the financial pressure on some mortgage holders.

Looking forward the key ABS monthly inflation figure will be released tomorrow and, even more importantly, the ABS September Quarter Inflation figures will be released in late October which will guide the Reserve Bank’s decision making towards the end of the year.