Roy Morgan Update October 8, 2024: ALP & L-NP support at 50%, Consumer & Business Confidence

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer & Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

With the main media discussion focussed on international unrest and the US economy and election, and the big issues at home, cost of living, housing shortages, interest rates and increasing concerns about job insecurity, the Roy Morgan indicators are moving on a weekly basis.

This week support for the ALP government improved as did consumer confidence. But, inflation expectations increased, more Australians believe the country is going in the wrong direction, and business confidence also crashed – losing almost all the gains made in August.

This week, there was a swing to the ALP with the Roy Morgan survey showing the ALP on 50% (up 1% from a week ago) tied with the Coalition on 50% on a two-party preferred basis.

This week’s result continues a run of close results stretching back 17 weeks until mid-June – nearly four months ago. If a Federal Election were held now, the result would be ‘too close to call’.

The gender divide continues with Women favouring the ALP (52.5% cf. 47.5%) and men the Coalition (52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%) –

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) dropped 3 points to 73.5.

This is because an increased majority of Australians (56%) say the country is going in the wrong direction,

In contrast, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.5 points to 83.5.

Consumer Confidence has now spent 12 weeks, equivalent to three months, in a narrow band from 81-85 since mid-July, but has not cracked the mark of 85 for 88 weeks since January 2023.

This week ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.3% and Australians now expect annual inflation to be 4.9% per annum over the next two years.

Putting a more positive spin in these numbers, Inflation Expectations have now spent eight weeks under 5% - the first time this has happened for three years since October 2021.

And now, to the latest figures on Business Confidence,

Remember, Roy Morgan measures Business Confidence monthly and in September it dropped 7 points to 94.3. – losing most of the gains made in August

Roy Morgan interviews around 1,500 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

In September, only 36% say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’ – the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020.

Over the two months of August and September, the most confident industries were Public Administration & Defence with a Business Confidence of 130.4, Electricity, gas & water on 120.7, Education & Training on 118.2, Recreation & Personal on 114.8 and Mining on 114.3.

At the other end of the scale Agriculture has the lowest Business Confidence at only 75.2 just below Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 81.8.

With the most important retailing months of November and December – including Black Friday and the Christmas Sales periods – right around the corner, the low Business Confidence for Retail, at 92.7, shows the retail industry is obviously concerned.

Finally, as the Federal government prepares to introduce legislation that would ban social media for young Australians, I’d like to share with you some relevant insights about Australians’ feelings about social media. Analysis of 6 years of data from the Roy Morgan Risk Monitor shows Australians have long distrusted social media companies - and their perceived exploitation of children is a major reason.

A snap poll conducted by Roy Morgan in July 2022- even before the debate heated up - showed a large majority of Australians (71%) believe social media creates more problems than it solves. Only (29%) consider social media solves more problems than it creates.