Roy Morgan Update November 19, 2024: ALP support down, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

In this week's update, Julian McCrann, Roy Morgan Poll Manager, presents the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

The Albanese Government continues to trail the Coalition – now for a third consecutive week, the Roy Morgan weekly Poll finds as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese jetted off on the weekend to meet with world leaders including President Biden and President Xi Jinping in South America at the APEC and G20 Summits.

The Coalition on 51% (up 0.5%) has a narrow lead over the ALP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now, the result would be ‘too close to call’.

Either major party would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) was virtually unchanged at 74.5 – and well below the neutral level of 100.

This is because a clear majority of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction (54%). Only 28.5% say the country is going in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged for a fourth straight week at 86.8.

The good news is that Consumer Confidence has now spent five weeks above 85 for the first time since October 2022.

Inflation Expectations eased 0.2% to 4.7% this week. Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 4.7% over the next two years.

The drop in Inflation Expectations came as wage pressures in the Australian economy eased.

The ABS Wage Price Index released last week showed an increase of 0.8% in the most recent quarter and an annual increase of 3.5% for the year to September 2024.

This was down 0.6% points from the annual wage increase of 4.1% in the year to June 2024 – a significant lessening of wage price pressures that will give more room for the Reserve Bank to reduce interest rates in the next few months.

A special Roy Morgan Poll conducted in October looked at whether Australians want to retain the current flag design and asked Australians: “Do you think Australia should have a new design for our National Flag or not?”

A majority of Australians (61%) say we should keep the current National Flag (but this is down 5% since 2010) and 39% (up 10%) say Australia should have a new design for our National Flag.

Australians also strongly favour the Monarchy – 57% say Australia should remain a Monarchy and 43% say Australia should become a Republic with an elected President.

Analysis of the results by gender shows 63% of women favour retaining the current National Flag compared to 60% of men.

Australians of all ages are in favour of retaining the current National Flag.

Young Australians under 35 are the most evenly split with 55% in favour of retaining the current National Flag compared to 45% that say Australia should have a new design for our National Flag.

This compares to 59% of Australians aged 35-49, 67% aged 50-64 and 64% aged 65+ who favour retaining the current National Flag.

However, there is a significant difference in views on the National Flag when it comes to broader political views.

A ‘super majority’ of 78% of Coalition supporters want to retain the current Flag, as do 74% of supporters of minor parties (like One Nation) and Independents. However, Greens supporters are heavily opposed to the current design and almost three-quarters, 72%, want a new design for the National Flag as do a small majority of ALP supporters, 56%, who want a new design for the National Flag compared to 44% that want to retain the current flag.