Roy Morgan Update May 28, 2024: ALP Support down, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

The Coalition now has a clear lead on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the Federal Election on 51.5% (up 2%) ahead of the on ALP 48.5% (down 2%).

The rise in support for the Coalition, or more accurately the loss of support for the ALP, comes in the week of pro-Palestine student protests on University campuses.

This is all playing out against a backdrop of increased concern about crime and safety, and particularly the safety of women.

Primary support for the ALP dropped for a second straight week, and was down 2% to only 28.5% this week, the drop in ALP primary support drifted to minor parties and independents, not the Coalition. Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged on 37% for a third straight week.

If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition would form a minority government, but with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

More women than men swung against the Albanese Government and looking at the results in the different States,  the strongest swings against the ALP on a two-party preferred basis were in Queensland (-7.5%) and Victoria (-6.5%).

In addition to the national issues, in Queensland the Steven Miles-led ALP Government is facing a State Election defeat this year while in Victoria the Jacinta Allan-led ALP Government has just handed down a State Budget with spending cuts and no sign of any cost-of-living relief for consumers.

In further concern for the Albanese Government, Roy Morgan Government Confidence remained virtually unchanged this week at only 81 with a majority of Australians saying the country is heading in the wrong direction –

52% say wrong direction, only 33%, say the country is heading in the right direction.

As a result, Roy Morgan Government Confidence remains well below the neutral level of 100.

This week there was a slide in Consumer Confidence with ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1.8pts to 80.2.

The indicators driving the fall relate to views on personal finances and the Australian economy over the next year.

Looking longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 69 weeks below the level of 85.

Consumer Confidence has continued to move in a narrow band of 80-85 over the last 25 weeks since early December.

Analysis of Consumer Confidence by Housing Status shows Australia’s housing market is split roughly equally between outright Home Owners, People Paying Off Their Home and Renters – about a third in each group.

The big mover this week was Renters – the only group to react positively to the Federal Budget a week earlier this week, reassessed their position and drove the weekly fall.

Consumer Confidence for Renters fell 6.5 points to 77.3 this week – the only group to lose confidence this week.

Home Owners continue to have the highest Consumer Confidence, unchanged at 85.6 while People Paying Off Their Home continue to have the lowest Consumer Confidence at only 76.4, although this was up by 0.8 points this week.

This group is especially sensitive to Reserve Bank decisions on interest rates.

The Reserve Bank next meets in mid-June in three weeks’ time.

There was virtually no movement in Inflation Expectations this week, up by 0.1% to 4.9%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 4.9% over the next two years.

Inflation Expectations have stayed within a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3% since early December.

And finally this week to New Zealand, with both key indicators – Government Confidence and Consumer Confidence – remaining below the neutral level of 100 – however both improved in May.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence improved for a second straight month in May, up 10.5 points to 96.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence, the measure of consumer’s economic sentiment hit, also improved, up 2.8 points to 84.9.