Roy Morgan Update March 25, 2025: ALP would win Federal Election – ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence and Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

This week’s Roy Morgan Poll shows a small swing back to the Coalition in the lead up to the Federal Budget, but the Albanese Government retains an election-winning lead.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority of 53% (down 1.5% from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.

This is a crucial week for the Government with Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivering the Federal Budget tonight, the Opposition’s Budget response to be delivered on Thursday, and likely soon after that the Federal Election will (finally) officially be called.

Analysis of the primary vote shows both major parties growing their support this week as we get closer to the Federal Election – due by mid-May.

Primary support for the Coalition increased 1.5% to 35.5% and primary support for the ALP was up 1% to 33.5% - the highest since March 2024.

Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12.5%, One Nation was down 1% to 4%, Other Parties were unchanged at 4.5% and Independents were down 0.5% to 10%.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) weakened this week, down 4.5 points to 80.

This indicator remains well below the neutral level of 100 because more Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction (52.5%), than the right direction (32.5%).

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 84.2, and still in negative territory – below 100

Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence unchanged in New South Wales and Victoria but rebounding in Queensland after the worst effects of Cyclone Alfred have now passed. And Consumer Confidence is down a little in the other States.

Looking longer-term, Consumer Confidence has not been above 90 since late May 2022 – the first week of the Albanese Government – and has averaged only 81.6 since the last Federal Election – and over 85 this year.

So, Consumer Confidence has been at its lowest this year over the last two weeks (under 85), ahead of a big week for the economy including the Federal Budget, the likely calling of an election, and a Reserve Bank interest rate meeting next week.

Inflation Expectations increased another 0.1% to 4.9% this week - and are now back at the level they were prior to the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut in mid-February.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.9% over each of the next two years.

And now to Mortgage Stress – an indicator closely tied to the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decisions.

The latest Roy Morgan estimates show mortgage stress decreasing in February following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time since November 2020.

In February, an estimated 1.55 million Australians, or 27.7% of all Australians with a mortgage, were ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress – down 1.2% from January.

This decline puts an end to three months of increasing mortgage stress since October and was no doubt a factor for the Reserve Bank in its decision to cut interest rates in February to provide relief to Australian mortgage holders.