Roy Morgan Update March 12, 2024: ALP Support drops, Consumer Confidence & Bunnings Most Trusted Brand
In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Most Trusted Brands.
Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.
The latest Roy Morgan survey on voting intention shows a swing away from the Government with the ALP down 2% to 51.5% and now just ahead of the Coalition on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
If a Federal Election were held now the Albanese Government would likely be re-elected but forced into minority government with the support of minor parties and independents.
The swing away from the Government was seen across all states with the largest swing to the Coalition in Victoria.
Last week, Victoria’s mid-year financial report (which was released after the Dunkley by-election) showed Victoria’s government debt had increased by around $12 billion – to more than $126 billion – with that number set to double in the next three years according to global ratings agency S&P.
Government Confidence was virtually unchanged this week at 81 - well below the neutral level of 100 because only 33% of Australians say the country is heading in the right direction while 52% say the country is heading in the wrong direction.
There was better news with Consumer Confidence.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.2 points to 82.2 this week. However, Consumer Confidence has still spent a record 58 weeks below the level of 85.
Although the Reserve Bank have not increased interest rates since November, the momentum in mortgage stress and cost of living pressures continues unabated – keeping a lid on Consumer Confidence.
Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 4.9%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 4.9% over the next two years.
Inflation Expectations have been at this level for four out of the last six weeks since late January - the equal lowest level of Inflation Expectations for over two years since February 2022.
This week Roy Morgan released the highly anticipated latest quarterly most trusted and distrusted brands survey results – and we have big news. In the full year, Woolworths has been unseated by Bunnings as Australia’s most trusted brand.
Bunnings has regained top spot for the first time in over three years with Woolworths dropping to second place and Coles dropping to fifth.
The decline of the big two supermarkets allowed Aldi to take third spot and Kmart to move up to fourth. The rest of the top twenty remained pretty stable.
Other brands to improve their rankings included Toyota (up one spot to seventh), Samsung (up one spot to 12th), Bendigo Bank (up two spots to 15th) and RAC (up one spot to 20th).
For far more detail and an in-depth webinar that explores the latest trust and distrust rankings, watch our December 2023 Quarterly Update.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
