Roy Morgan Update March 11, 2025: ALP support up, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

A week in which many assumed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would call the Federal Election, turned into a waiting game - as Cyclone Alfred slowly approached the Queensland and New South Wales coasts – and created significant uncertainty and turbulence in its wake – including an improved results for the ALP Government which is back in front.

The Roy Morgan Poll has the ALP on 51.5% (up 2%) regaining a narrow lead ahead of the Coalition on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament and the Coalition or ALP would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government.

As well as the wait for Cyclone Alfred  – which extended throughout last week, several other events impacted voters including

• the circumnavigation of Australia by a flotilla of Chinese warships,
• continuing unrest in Ukraine - with the Prime Minister allowing for the possibility of Australian peacekeepers to be sent and the Opposition Leader ruling it out,
• the uncertainty created in the global economy by President Trump’s ‘flip-flopping’ on imposing tariffs, and
• on the home front an election in Western Australia easily won by Labor.

Often in times of international unrest and uncertainty, and natural disasters, there is a rise in support for the incumbent Government – and this was a clear factor during the early days of the COVID pandemic.

This week there were significant swings to the Albanese Government in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania that drove the overall result in favour of the ALP.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) increased 2 points to 81.5.

However still below the neutral level because more Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction (51.5%), that the right direction (33%)

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.8 points to 86.9,

The decrease this week was driven by a 4 point decrease in Queensland, and increasing pessimism about Australia’s economic outlook over the next year and five years.

But at 86.9, consumer confidence is still nearly 2 points higher than it was prior to the recent interest rate cut.

Inflation Expectations increased 0.2% to 4.7% this week -  and are now essentially back at the level they were for the three weeks before the mid-February interest rate cut.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.7% over each of the next two years.

And now, Australian Business Confidence.

Roy Morgan interviews around 1,500 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy - and in February there was little change in the outlook of Australian businesses with the indicator virtually unchanged at 108.5.

Interviewing took place throughout February, so The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates, came too late to have a significant impact on February result - but will be keenly watched for subsequent months.