Roy Morgan Update June 12, 2024: ALP Support unchanged, Consumer Confidence & Unemployment

In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

The Albanese Government increased its lead for a second straight week. On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is up 1.5% to 53.5% ahead of the Coalition on 46.5%

This level of support for the Albanese Government on a two-party preferred basis is the highest it’s been since the first week of March – and is due to an increase in primary support for the Greens and the flow of preferences back to the ALP.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with an increased majority, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

For the second straight week the three major States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland all swung to the ALP on a two-party preferred basis. The Albanese Government now leads clearly in NSW (56% cf. 44%) and Victoria (57.5% cf. 42.5%) and has narrowed the gap in Queensland (47% cf. 53%).

Coming back to primary voting intention. This week primary support for both major parties was down slightly. The ALP was down 0.5% to 30.5% while support for the Coalition was down 1% to 35%.

Support for the Greens was up 1.5% to 15.5%, support for One Nation increased 1% to 5.5%, support for Other Parties was down 1.5% to 4% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9.5%.

Although the news on the political front was positive – at least on a two-party preferred basis, there were concerning moves for the Government in the key indicators.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped to its lowest level so far this year, down 5.5 points to 70 with an increasing majority of Australians saying the country is heading in the wrong direction –

58.5% say wrong direction, only 28.5%, say the country is heading in the right direction.

As a result, Roy Morgan Government Confidence remains 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

There was also a big plunge in consumer confidence. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence this week was down 3.5 points to only 77.0.

This drop is not an unusual result for the first week of Winter – Consumer Confidence has dropped by an average of 4.4 points this week over the last three years.

Looking longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 71 weeks below the level of 85.

Driving the drop in Consumer Confidence were increasing concerns about the next 12 months both for personal finances and the Australian economy.

Both indicators hit their lowest levels for 2024 this week with 9% more Australians expecting to be ‘worse off than better off financially’ this time next year.

And 32% more Australians expecting ‘bad times’ than ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year.

In fact, only 7% expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year – This is the lowest since mid-November 2023 just after the Reserve Bank last raise interest rates.

There was a slight drop in Inflation Expectations this week, down from 5% to 4.8%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 4.8% over the next two years.

Inflation Expectations have stayed within a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3% for 27 weeks (over half a year) since early December.

And finally this week to the Australian employment markets.

There is good news with the labour force in May. Employment in Australia reached an all-time high.

14.3 million Australians in employment is a new record - 78,000 more than in April and 603,000 more than a year ago.

Importantly, the surge in employment is having an impact on unemployment. The latest Roy Morgan headline real unemployment figure for May is down 1% to 8.7% and equivalent to 1.36 million Australians.